Troy still had a chance at Utah State late when Goose Crowder threw the third interception of his night. His three interceptions were among the factors that ended Troy's late scoring threats in a 21-10 loss in which Crowder had thrown 49 times for 226 yards and one touchdown. Nine days later, Southern Miss comes to Troy for the Sun Belt opener, Tuesday at 7 p.m. CT on ESPN2, and the Trojans are a 79.7% favorite in their own building.
What Austin's offense has actually produced
First-year coordinator Adam Austin was hired to modernize the offense, and he describes the new system as a wide-open, RPO-based spread built on an aggressive downhill run game and a vertical passing attack. Four games in, the run game is the part that has shown up. Troy ground out 169 rushing yards at Utah State, which is exactly the downhill production the scheme promises.
The problem is what happens when the run doesn't move the chains. Troy converted 4 of 13 third downs, 31%, against Utah State, and the pass volume in Logan, 49 attempts, is what a stalled offense looks like when it starts chasing. Crowder taking three shots that ended in the other team's hands is the end of that chain, not a separate problem. Tuesday should settle it quickly. If Troy is converting third downs in the 40s and Crowder is throwing 30 times instead of 50, the Utah State game was a bad night. If the Trojans are living on third-and-8 again against a team they're favored to beat by double digits at home, the ceiling of this offense is lower than the preseason suggested.
It helps that this specific opponent is where Crowder last looked like the version Troy needs. In the 2025 regular-season finale at Hattiesburg he threw three touchdown passes, including a 75-yarder to RaRa Thomas with 3:16 left, in a 28-18 win over Southern Miss. Same quarterback, same opponent, clean result.
The defense is trending the other way
Troy's identity last season was disruption. The Trojans had 37 sacks and five defensive touchdowns, the third-most defensive scores in the country. At Utah State that unit showed up, Troy's defense accounted for both Aggie turnovers, an interception and a fumble it jarred loose and recovered, though it still allowed 413 yards and 21 points. The defense is the half of this team Troy can mostly trust right now, which means an ordinary, mistake-free night from the offense should be enough.
One undercurrent worth tracking is that Troy was flagged for three penalties that aided the Aggies' decisive second-half go-ahead touchdown drive. Flags at that point in a game are how a comfortable Tuesday night on ESPN2 turns into a nervous one.
The stakes are real without being dramatic. Troy wins and its Sun Belt title-game odds sit near 15.8%; Troy loses and they fall to about 4.3%. That's the whole West race in one Tuesday night.
Louisiana at Louisiana Tech: root for Louisiana Tech
The only other result worth checking in on kicks off Saturday at 6:30 p.m. CT on ESPN+. Louisiana is Troy's Week 7 opponent and, more immediately, a direct competitor in the conference standings. Every Louisiana loss is a league loss Troy doesn't have to make up. Louisiana Tech wins this one about 53% of the time, which makes it close to a coin flip rather than something to count on. In the split, Troy's title-game odds land near 15% if the Bulldogs win and near 11.7% if the Ragin' Cajuns do, a difference of 3.3 percentage points. Either way, what Troy does to Southern Miss on Tuesday night moves its West math more than anything that happens in Ruston.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the methodology explains how the simulations work.