Beau Sparks' 40-yard touchdown catch with 1:53 left got the Bobcats back within 31-29, but that was the final score, and Texas State lost as a favorite.
Everything else in the box score belonged to Texas State. The Bobcats put up 565 total yards to San Diego State's 239 and 34 first downs to 13. Jackson threw for 372 yards and three touchdowns and added 80 rushing yards on 22 carries. Sparks caught 10 passes for 153 yards. Texas State entered as roughly a 9.5-to-10.5-point favorite, and in terms of moving the ball, it played like one.
So the honest read on this loss is narrow. That matters for how you judge the rest of the Pac-12 schedule, because the question Texas State fans thought was settled is open again.
The more genuinely surprising part is the other side of the ball. Will Windham, hired from South Alabama, took over the Texas State defense in 2026, and that unit held San Diego State to 239 yards and 1-of-10 on third down. San Diego State's 21-point third quarter came off a 96-yard kickoff-return touchdown and two short-field touchdowns. Those weren't drives Windham's front seven surrendered. Landon Keopple's offense was always going to be fine; it has been fine. Whether the defense holds up through November is the live question, and nothing in San Diego argued against it.
Texas State sits at 2-3 overall and 0-1 in the Pac-12. That is a frustrating place for a program that has won a bowl game in each of GJ Kinne's three seasons and put together at least seven wins three years running, the stretch that made conference contention sound reasonable when the Pac-12 move became official in July. The model gives Texas State about a 12% chance of reaching the conference title game. One conference loss has not ended anything, but the Bobcats now need help.
While the Bobcats are off
Texas State doesn't play this week.
San Diego State at Oregon State: root for Oregon State
The Aztecs just took a conference win off Texas State's ledger, and they get Oregon State on USA Network with the home team favored at 61%. An Oregon State win puts Texas State's title-game odds at about 13%; a second San Diego State conference win drops them to roughly 10%. That 3.3-point swing is the biggest single move available this week, and it's straightforwardly about keeping the team that beat you from banking another one.
Boise State at Fresno State: root for Boise State
Boise State is ranked 23rd and playing at Fresno State on The CW, where the model actually favors Fresno State. Boise State's chance of winning sits at 43%. The reason to pull for the visitor is Fresno State. Texas State hosts the Bulldogs in Week 11, and every Fresno State conference win makes that a bigger game to have to win. Boise State winning puts Texas State's title-game odds near 13%, against about 11% if Fresno State takes it. Worth about 2.3 points, and the less likely of the two results to land.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the simulation details are on the methodology page.