Josiah Lucas carried 21 times for 111 yards and scored on runs of two and seven yards in San Diego State's 31-29 win over Texas State, becoming the first SDSU true freshman running back to top 100 rushing yards since Donnel Pumphrey in 2013. He did it in the third game since Lucky Sutton and Javion Kinnard were both hurt at Toledo, Kinnard's knee in the first quarter, which meant Kinnard never simply inherited Sutton's workload. The job fell to a freshman, and the freshman held the floor up while the Aztecs turned a 17-3 halftime hole into a Pac-12 opening win.
That makes this week genuinely interesting rather than merely daunting. Both Sutton (ankle) and Kinnard (knee) are listed questionable rather than ruled out for Saturday at Oregon State. Sean Lewis could get his two veterans back and still have to decide how many carries belong to the freshman who just averaged better than five a pop.
The rest of the Texas State film argues the same way. Points came from elsewhere. Cameron Cooper blocked a 35-yard field-goal attempt in the first half and returned an interception for the game-sealing touchdown, the kind of swing plays that win a game without proving a defense can hold one. Jayden Denegal was clean but not productive, going 15 of 23 for 109 yards with no interceptions and no touchdowns, so five games in the passing game still has not given SDSU a way to score when the run game and the takeaways dry up. And SDSU did all of it shorthanded beyond the backfield. A mumps outbreak left 13 players out and another 14 as game-time decisions, roughly 27 bodies affected. That is why health, not scheme, is the thing to watch as the schedule hardens. The Aztecs are 2-3 overall and 1-0 in the Pac-12, and John David Wicker spent the summer saying this program should be competing for a Pac-12 championship in November. The win kept that alive. It did not make it likely.
Saturday at Reser: San Diego State at Oregon State, 3 p.m. PT on USA Network
SDSU's own game is the week. The model gives the Aztecs a 39% chance in Corvallis; the market is harsher, with Oregon State favored by 13.5 points on a total of 57.5. History is harsher still. Oregon State leads the all-time series 5-2 and has won the last five meetings. One small thread to enjoy is edge rusher Kai Wallin, who started seven of nine games for Oregon State in 2025 before transferring to San Diego State, and now lines up against the program that recruited and played him.
The stakes are plain. Win and SDSU's Pac-12 title-game odds sit near 28%; lose and they fall to roughly 8%. In an eight-team league where this is SDSU's first season as a member, two conference wins out of two would be worth more than any outside result on the board.
Boise State at Fresno State: root for Boise State
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. PT on The CW Network. Fresno State hosts No. 23 Boise State, and Aztec fans want the Broncos. Fresno State is the Pac-12 team SDSU hosts next week, and more to the point a direct competitor for the two title-game spots. Fresno State losing at home would mean the team SDSU hosts next week arrives in San Diego with a conference loss already on it, and the Aztecs with none. Boise State wins this about 43% of the time. The two branches are close. Boise State winning puts SDSU's title-game chances near 17%, Fresno State winning near 14%, a difference of about 3.5 percentage points.
Full numbers and the week's board are in the interactive guide, with the modeling explained in the methodology.