Jahiem White ran for 219 yards and a touchdown, including an 84-yard run, the 10th-longest in school history, and he now has 10 total touchdowns, second in FBS. North Texas is 3-2 and 1-0 in the league, and it got there because Tulsa, tied 38-38 after regulation, went for a game-winning two-point conversion in overtime and Oran Singleton Jr. was ruled short of the goal line, his shin down before the ball crossed the plane, with the call upheld on review. Neal Brown's own summary was less celebratory. His team, he said, "didn't manage the game very well, but we found a way to win."
He has a case. Tayven Jackson threw for a season-high 332 yards and four touchdowns and ran in the go-ahead score in overtime, but he also threw two interceptions and lost a fumble on a sack. Jackson arrived in Denton with 27 college appearances, 16 starts and 3,451 career passing yards. His grip on the job is not in question. Week-to-week ball security still is.
The encouraging part is quieter. North Texas held Tulsa's Damari Alston to 23 carries for 79 yards and one touchdown, a continuation of its contained rushing performances this season, which is the strongest argument yet that Texas State's 337-yard afternoon in Week 3 was a bad week rather than how this front plays.
Charlotte at North Texas, Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Charlotte comes in 0-5, 0-1 in the conference after a 59-8 home loss to Memphis, still looking for its first win of the 2026 season. The model gives North Texas a 98% chance to win, and the market agrees. DraftKings had the Mean Green as a 27.5-point favorite as of Sunday. So the win itself is not the thing to watch.
The thing to watch is whether this looks like a team controlling a game. Takeaways, which North Texas did not force a single one of at Tulsa, against an offense that just gave Memphis four of them. Drives that end in the end zone instead of in Jackson's turnover column. A fourth quarter nobody has to sweat. Those are the habits November will demand, because the league's top two regular-season finishers play for the title and North Texas still has to go to Navy, then to UTSA and Tulane on back-to-back November Saturdays.
For the standings math, holding serve here is worth a lot more than the 27.5-point spread suggests. Beat Charlotte and North Texas's title-game odds sit near 57%, with a playoff path around 6%. Lose and those fall to roughly 25% and 2%. A 2% chance of catastrophe is still a 2% chance.
One more thread worth noting. The most recent meeting with Charlotte was a 54-20 North Texas win in October 2025, when Drew Mestemaker threw for a conference-record 608 yards. Mestemaker, top target Wyatt Young, back Caleb Hawkins and head coach Eric Morris all left for Oklahoma State after the season. Nothing about that night tells you anything about this one.
South Florida at UTSA: root for UTSA
Thursday, 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. South Florida is the conference rival North Texas needs tripped up here, and UTSA, a team the Mean Green visit in November, has a 45% chance to do it at home. A UTSA win puts North Texas's title-game odds near 59% rather than the 55% that follows a South Florida win, a straight standings effect worth about 4.0 percentage points.
UAB at Memphis: root for UAB
Saturday, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2. Memphis is the bigger threat to one of the two title-game spots, so UAB springing the upset is the better outcome. About 6.9 percentage points better, 62% title-game odds in that branch against 55% if Memphis holds. UAB is only a 15% shot on the road. North Texas cannot do anything about that result; the fourth quarter against Charlotte is the part it controls.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the simulation details are on the methodology page.