Jaden Jefferson took the second-half kickoff and ran it back for a touchdown, and for a few minutes Saturday in Chapel Hill, North Carolina was a point behind Notre Dame. The Tar Heels had already stolen a possession from Notre Dame late in the second quarter. The Irish had the ball at the UNC 1-yard line, failed on fourth-and-goal, and UNC answered with a 97-yard touchdown drive to close the half. That made it 21-20 to open the third quarter. Then Notre Dame simply ran the ball. North Carolina gave up 241 rushing yards, including 166 in the second half, and the Irish pulled away for a 37-26 win that dropped UNC to 2-2.
Billy Edwards Jr. had a split afternoon that fit the day exactly. He went 17-of-28 for 208 yards and three touchdowns, but threw two interceptions, one while being hit, one on a deep attempt, that Notre Dame turned into touchdowns. Bill Belichick put it as plainly as he could afterward. "We've got to coach it better and fix it ... there's too many leaky yards." His summary of the whole thing was that "We were certainly competitive. We just need to do a better job of coaching, playing, taking advantage of those opportunities," and Jordan Shipp, who caught passes in it, cut straight to the part that matters. "We still lost ... We did some things good, we did some things bad, we could have made more plays."
This is the second time in three weeks
The reason Saturday stung rather than merely disappointed is that Clemson happened two weeks earlier, and it happened the same way. UNC led 17-6 at halftime and then scored three points while Clemson scored 22. The Tar Heels had second-and-goal at the Clemson 7 with 8:11 left, leading 17-15, when lightning stopped the game for two hours and 28 minutes; out of the delay they ran twice for a total of three yards and settled for a field goal and a 20-15 lead. Later, trailing 21-20 on fourth-and-1, Bobby Petrino called a play-action shot and Edwards threw deep left to Jelani Thurman, incomplete, with Clemson taking over on downs. Belichick's view of it was simple. "I felt like it was a good play." Asked whether the plan from the 7 had been to run twice, he said only, "We missed an opportunity down there. I'll just leave it at that."
Edwards finished that one 13-of-30 for 135 yards with a touchdown and an interception, his worst start as a Tar Heel. The defense, meanwhile, lost the game to long runs. A 45-yard Davidson carry set up Clemson's go-ahead score and a 34-yard run sealed it. Derek McDonald said it without cover. "We just missed tackles, to be honest with you." Belichick's own accounting of that night pointed the same direction, "We missed a couple of opportunities on offense and missed some tackles on defense. We had a couple long runs that hurt us."
Two ranked opponents, two one-point games in the second half, two losses to the same two problems. That is the backdrop for this week, and it's also why Melkart Abou Jaoude's status mattered so much and delivered so little. He returned to play against Notre Dame after missing the prior two games with a right hand/wrist injury. Getting the best pass rusher back did not stop anyone from running. Notre Dame still piled up 166 of its 241 rushing yards after halftime in his first game back.
Saturday at Pittsburgh, noon ET on ESPN
Pittsburgh is 5-0 and just entered the AP Top 25 at No. 25 for the first time this season. But the Panthers are also suddenly thin where it counts most. Mason Heintschel is out for the season after tearing his ACL at Virginia Tech, and fifth-year transfer Holden Geriner is expected to start, a quarterback with stops at Auburn and Texas State.
The model is unmoved. It gives North Carolina about a 14% chance, and Pittsburgh roughly 86% at home. The betting market disagrees sharply, with Pitt favored by 4.5 points and an implied 74.5% win probability. That gap is the honest shape of the week. A one-in-seven shot is a one-in-seven shot, and nobody should budget on it. But the specific thing that has beaten UNC twice, a quarterback-driven second-half surge, is the thing Pittsburgh is least equipped to produce right now. A new starter makes mistakes under pressure. Xavier Lewis and Abou Jaoude getting home early would turn those into drives that end.
Two games have already shown the Tar Heels exactly what beats them, and neither fix requires a scheme overhaul. Tackling a ball carrier cleanly after halftime and keeping Edwards' throws out of Pittsburgh's hands for four quarters would be enough this week. The run defense has now failed against both Power Four teams UNC has played, and Belichick has twice described the problem as coaching and execution rather than talent. If the fourth quarter arrives with this game inside a score, UNC will be standing where it stood against Clemson and Notre Dame, this time against a quarterback much less equipped to punish it. Full matchup detail is in the interactive guide, and the model's workings are explained in the methodology.
Pittsburgh, with a quarterback expected to start for the first time there, is the softest version of a ranked opponent North Carolina is going to see for a long while.