Carter Jones hit his head on the ground while being tackled in the third quarter against Air Force, left the field with his return in doubt, and then came back in the fourth quarter to run Nevada's last possession of regulation. Nevada lost that one 36-33 in double overtime anyway, and for a week the only thing fans really wanted to know was whether their quarterback was alright. During Nevada's bye week before the October 10 game at UTEP, Nevada Sports Net reported that Jones remains Nevada's clear-cut starting quarterback. He starts Saturday at UTEP with the health question closed.
Kickoff is 4 p.m. Pacific Saturday on FS1, with Nevada the road team in a conference game that the simulation gives the Wolf Pack an 88% chance to win. ESPN has Nevada as a 9.5-point favorite with a total of 49.5.
Why a 1-3 team is favored by nine and a half
Not because of anything Nevada has proven. The Wolf Pack sit 1-3 overall and 0-1 in the Mountain West, with the Air Force loss having opened the conference schedule; the only win came against Western Kentucky in the opener. Nevada is favored because UTEP's season came apart faster. The Miners lost 61-7 at New Mexico on October 3 in their first Mountain West game, giving up 493 yards, turning the ball over five times, and trailing 28-0 by the third quarter.
What should genuinely encourage Nevada fans is where UTEP has lost its teeth. The Miners' Orange Swarm defense ranked first in Conference USA and 10th nationally in 2025 at 7.2 tackles for loss per game, and in 2026 it has produced nothing like that, allowing 493 total yards and 61 points in the loss at New Mexico.
The offense Nevada actually has now
Nevada has scored 49, 7, 20 and 33 points in its four games, an average of 27.3 after averaging 17.58 a year ago, and it committed zero turnovers against Air Force after giving the ball away four times against Montana State and three at Middle Tennessee. Jones still has not thrown a touchdown pass in either of his last two full games. Watch the first quarter for whether Nevada scores early rather than climbing back late. Against an opponent this diminished, Nevada should not need an adjustment at halftime to be in front.
What a win is and is not worth
A win at UTEP barely moves Nevada's conference math. The meaning sits in a program that went 3-10 and then 3-9 under Choate, a combined 6-19, and sent four players, Jack Foster, Dylan LaBarbera, Joe McFadden and Aiden Walker, to the 2026 Preseason All-Mountain West Team, its most since 2021, finally converting that talent into a result instead of a competitive scoreline. Nothing on the rest of Saturday's slate changes any of that; this is a day to watch one game.
And the season's real target still sits on November 28 in Las Vegas, where Nevada will try to end a four-game losing streak to UNLV. Nevada is not beating UNLV by surviving games like this one. It gets there by handling them, and this is the most handleable opponent left.
More detail on the week's numbers lives in the interactive guide, and the simulation behind them is explained in the methodology.