Hank Brown held the ball too long on Iowa's opening drive against Ohio State, got sacked, and lost the fumble. He threw an interception in the fourth quarter. Then, with 12:47 left, he walked off with what Kirk Ferentz called a mild sprain and did not return, finishing 12-of-27 for 132 yards while Jeremy Hecklinski relieved him and went 5-of-5 for 67 yards. Ohio State won 31-14 at Kinnick, Iowa's first loss of the season, and it was a lopsided loss unlike Iowa's close games so far this season. The Buckeyes led 17-6 at halftime, held the ball for 38:02 and outgained Iowa 484-238. Four of Iowa's five games had been competitive. This one was decided by the third quarter.
Four days later, Ferentz still hasn't named a starter for Friday night at Washington. Ferentz hasn't said whether Hecklinski will get another turn, but Hecklinski said he has been practicing like he's going to be the starter either way. Hecklinski's five-for-five cameo is too small a sample to mean much. Washington replaced both of its starting outside cornerbacks, so whoever takes the first snap in Seattle will be throwing at less experienced coverage than Michigan or Ohio State put on the field.
What the Ohio State game actually exposed
The quarterback wasn't operating in a vacuum. Iowa rushed for a season-low 39 yards, with Kamari Moulton managing 27 on 11 carries, and the line that is replacing pieces of last year's Joe Moore Award group still hasn't reached 100 rushing yards against a power-conference opponent this season. If the run game stays stuck at that level in Seattle, the passing game doesn't get the easy early-down looks it needs, and neither quarterback will throw his way out of it.
On the other side, Ohio State threw it around at will. Julian Sayin went 20-of-27 for 324 yards, with no sack total listed against him. Washington, down to true freshman Brian Bonner Jr. as its lead back with Quaid Carr and Jayden Limar out, is the kind of offense Iowa's front should be able to push around. Watch for a lineman's name next to a sack.
The specialists are the uncomplicated good news. Caden Buhr made field goals of 43 and 48 yards in the first quarter, his longest makes of the year, before the game got away. A 41.5-point total and a 2.5-point Washington line say Friday is a toss-up, and in a toss-up, a kicker who makes everything from 48 in is worth real points.
Iowa at Washington
Kickoff is 9 p.m. ET Friday, on FOX. The model has it at a coin flip, with Iowa roughly 50 percent. The gap between outcomes is the biggest number on Iowa's board all week. Win and Iowa's playoff chances sit around 26 percent with Big Ten title-game odds near 18 percent; lose and those fall to about 10 percent and 2 percent. Washington (3-2, 0-2 Big Ten) has dropped two straight conference games, to Minnesota and at USC. Neither team wants a third.
Indiana at Nebraska: root for Nebraska
The model gives Nebraska an 18% chance to win. This result carries a 6.0 percentage-point impact on Iowa's conference-title-game probability.
Nebraska is a long shot at 18 percent, but this is the most valuable outside result available. Indiana is one of the teams Iowa has to climb over in the Big Ten standings, and a loss here would cut into the Hoosiers' cushion. Iowa's title-game odds come out near 15 percent if Nebraska wins and near 9 percent if Indiana holds serve, a six-point swing. Noon ET on FOX.
Maryland at Ohio State: root for Maryland
The model gives Maryland a 1% chance to win. This result carries a 5.7 percentage-point impact on Iowa's conference-title-game probability. Maryland is a long shot here.
Worth about the same six points and essentially never happening. Ohio State just handled Iowa in Iowa City and is a 99 percent favorite at home; Maryland's chance is under 1 percent. If it somehow landed, Iowa's title-game odds would read near 16 percent instead of near 10 percent. Fine to glance at. Not worth arranging your evening around. 4:15 p.m. ET on BTN.
North Carolina at Pittsburgh: root for North Carolina
The model gives North Carolina a 14% chance to win. This result carries a 1.3 percentage-point impact on Iowa's playoff probability.
This one has nothing to do with the Big Ten. Pittsburgh is ranked and competing with Iowa for at-large playoff position, so a North Carolina upset, 14 percent, nudges Iowa's playoff odds to about 19 percent rather than about 18 percent. A point and change. Leave it on in the background. Noon ET on ESPN.
Washington is the third straight Big Ten opponent and the last game before Iowa's only bye, with Minnesota, Wisconsin and Nebraska still ahead. Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the methodology explains how the simulations work.