Bear Bachmeier threw for 62 yards in the Fort Worth rain Saturday and scored both BYU touchdowns with his legs, the second a 21-yard run with 2:06 left that finished off a 17-10 win at TCU. He went 11 of 24 through the air and ran 15 times for 66 yards. By the time he got there, LJ Martin had already left after two carries and Isaiah Glasker had left after a hit on an interception return. Neither came back; both were ruled out at halftime.
The defense and the kicking game won it. Kelly Poppinga's defense had its best night of the season. BYU had four sacks of Jaden Craig, shared by Nusi Taumoepeau, Tausili Akana, Braxton Lindsay and Jake Clifton, its most in a game since five against Navy in 2020. Faletau Satuala intercepted Craig to set up BYU's first touchdown, a month after posting seven tackles and a tackle for loss against Arizona. Matthias Dunn made a 49-yarder, and in the fourth quarter Cade Uluave stopped Ed Small for a yard on third-and-10 at the BYU 29, forcing a missed 46-yard TCU field goal and handing the offense the ball back with 8:01 left before the go-ahead drive.
What it did not confirm is that BYU plays from ahead. The game was tied 7-7 at halftime and 10-7 after three quarters, and BYU's only first-half points came off the short field Satuala's interception created rather than anything the offense generated on its own.
Friday night in Provo, and what a win is actually worth
Iowa State at BYU kicks at 10:15 p.m. ET Friday on ESPN, a weekday slot that leaves BYU a short week after Saturday's game at TCU. BYU is favored, 65%, and the gap between outcomes is the biggest number on the board this week. A win puts the Cougars' playoff odds at about 39.9% and their Big 12 title-game odds at 32%, while a loss drops those to roughly 21% and 9%. Those are two alternative futures, not a sequence, and no other result in the country moves BYU's season this much.
The injury list is the thing to watch before kickoff. Martin, Glasker and DeVries all left the win over TCU with injuries and no announced return timeline. Damuni's absence has been absorbed. Tommy Prassas took the strong-safety job, and Poppinga said in early September that the staff would "shoot for the middle of October" on Damuni's return, with Sitake saying the leg injury was not season-ending. That's the template worth rooting for. One injury replaced well enough that the defense got better, not worse.
Martin is the harder loss. He's the reigning Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year and the league's preseason pick to repeat, and he anchors a rushing attack that ranks second nationally at 6.7 yards per carry. If he can't go on a short week, BYU's ground game belongs to Preston Rex, Journee Tonga and Legend Glasker again, and Bachmeier's legs carry more than they should have to. Hope for Martin in uniform; plan on the committee.
One more wrinkle is that with starters out, reserves see more snaps, and BYU's backups have been the loose thread. The Cougars took eight penalties for 74 yards against Colorado State, and Sitake spent the bye week on young players and "uncharacteristic" mistakes, saying he wanted "improvement, mostly from the backups." TCU was close all night, so the second team never got the extended run that would answer it. Friday might.
There's also a nice thread here. BYU trailed Iowa State by 14 in Ames last October before winning 41-27, and Satuala finished that night with a game-high 10 tackles and a pick-six, his first career interception.
The rest of the board
Kansas at Utah: root for Kansas
This result carries a 7.0 percentage-point impact on BYU's conference-title-game probability.
Saturday, 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN. Utah is the heavy favorite at home, so a Kansas win happens only about 11% of the time, but it's the most valuable outside result available. Utah is the Big 12 contender BYU most needs to stumble, and a loss here directly worsens the Utes' league record. BYU's title-game odds sit near 30% if Kansas pulls it off versus 23% if Utah holds serve, a 7-point swing. Fun to want, not something to count on.
UCF at Oklahoma State: root for UCF
Saturday, noon ET on ESPN2. This one's more likely than it looks, UCF wins roughly 60% of the time on the road, and a Cowboys loss trims another ranked Big 12 team's standing. Worth about 1.7 points of playoff odds for BYU, 33.8% with the UCF win against 32.1% without. Check the score, don't rearrange your morning.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the simulation details are on the methodology page.