Jason Wright took the snap on fourth-and-goal from the 2 with the clock at zero Saturday and was stopped short of the end zone, and Western Michigan walked out of UB Stadium with a 20-17 win in Buffalo's conference opener. Buffalo had the tying field goal available and chose the touchdown instead. That decision, not the loss, is the second thing worth remembering about the afternoon.
The first is Wright. Making his third start, he went 11 of 18 for 170 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions, his best completion percentage of the season. The skill group around him has sorted itself out, too, just not the way anyone drew it in August. Chance Morrow caught seven passes for 90 yards, Patrick Clacks III turned his only catch into a 59-yard touchdown, and Messiah Burch carried 23 times for 106 yards and a score. Tony Tokarz's offense is functioning without the player it was supposed to be built around.
What Buffalo did not do was finish. The front seven managed two sacks (Cornell Evans, Logan Goodwin) and six tackles for loss, and Western Michigan scored 10 fourth-quarter points to erase the Bulls' 14-10 lead entering the period. Elijah Holmes, the quarterback Wright replaced, was ruled out again with the same knee injury, with no return timeline reported, which settles one thing for fans. Wright is not keeping a seat warm. Whatever this offense becomes over the next seven weeks, he is the one building it.
Buffalo at Toledo, Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+
Here is the uncomfortable part. Buffalo's schedule was always going to do this. Open at home with UAlbany, go to FIU and Penn State, host Robert Morris, then start MAC play with the defending champion and immediately drive to Toledo. Those last two games were set to arrive before anyone knew who the quarterback was.
Toledo is 4-1, 1-0 in the MAC, and riding a four-game winning streak after running 51 times for 352 yards in a 39-24 win over Ball State. CJ Miller went for 196 and two touchdowns, Connor Walendzak for 103 and one. That is a two-back power attack pointed directly at the weakest part of Buffalo's roster, a front seven that could not protect a 14-10 lead in the fourth quarter.
Going the other way, Wright will face defensive end Andrew Zock, who arrived at Toledo as the 2025 FCS Defensive Player of the Year after 20 tackles for loss, 11.5 sacks and a program-record 23 quarterback hurries at Mercer. He forced and recovered his own fumble against Ball State. It will not be comfortable at the Glass Bowl.
The model gives Buffalo about an 11% chance, and the market is harsher. Toledo opened as roughly a 19.5-point favorite. The payoff if it happens is genuinely large. A win puts Buffalo's MAC title-game odds around 22%, while a loss leaves them near 2%. Those are the two branches, not a number that moves. Preseason, the league's coaches picked Buffalo sixth of 13 and Toledo third, so an upset here would be a good deal more than a mild surprise.
Root for it anyway, and watch the specific things that would make it possible. Buffalo needs Burch to keep getting 20-plus carries so Wright is not throwing on third-and-long into Zock. It needs the defense to make Miller and Walendzak earn short yards rather than hand them 6.9 per carry. And if the Bulls are within a score late, Buffalo has already shown you exactly what it will do with fourth-and-goal.
Kent State at Western Michigan: root for Kent State
This result carries a 2.0 percentage-point impact on Buffalo's conference-title-game probability. Kent State is a long shot here.
Kent State visiting Western Michigan, also Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, is the one outside result with any pull on Buffalo. Western Michigan is the team that just beat the Bulls and sits ahead of them in the standings, so a Kent State win directly shrinks the field in front of Buffalo in the MAC race. That shift is worth about two percentage points of Buffalo's title-game odds.
Kent State wins in Kalamazoo about 6% of the time, so the standings in front of Buffalo will most likely look Sunday morning the way they look now. The result the Bulls can actually change is their own, at the Glass Bowl.
Full numbers and the week's branches are in the interactive guide, and the simulation details are in the methodology.