Malachi Singleton threw for 316 yards and two touchdowns on 26-of-38 passing without an interception at NC State and ran for a third score, and App State still lost. Around him, the Mountaineers rushed for just 62 yards, with Jaquari Lewis leading the way at 32 yards and a touchdown. That split has defined the first month. The quarterback is not the problem, and the offense is not yet finished.
Then came the bye, which supplied no new evidence at all. In post-game remarks after the NC State loss, as the team headed into the bye, Dowell Loggains attributed it to "self-inflicted things" and said the staff would go coach the tape really hard. That is the whole Week 5 ledger, and it means everything you wondered about on September 27 is still open on October 10.
Old Dominion, 1 p.m., ESPN+
Saturday is the real start of the season. App State's 3-1 record came entirely in non-conference games; the Sun Belt opener against Old Dominion kicks off at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN+ at Kidd Brewer Stadium, where App State is 3-0 all-time against the Monarchs and where this one doubles as Homecoming. Old Dominion arrives 1-4 and 0-2 in the Sun Belt, last in the seven-team East, on a three-game losing streak, while James Madison and Georgia State have already pulled clear at the top.
The model gives App State a 76% chance to win; the market has the Mountaineers favored by 5.5. Those two readings are not far apart in spirit. This is a game App State should win, not one it is guaranteed.
The matchup underneath favors App State. Old Dominion was held to 146 total yards and 79 passing yards with 7 sacks allowed at Georgia State last week, converting 5 of 17 third downs. A team that cannot stay on the field hands App State possessions, and possessions are exactly what Mike Anthony's offense needs if the run game is ever going to look like a run game. Anthony is in his first season as coordinator, DJ Smith stayed on defense, so the offense is the side being rebuilt, and four weeks in, the passing game works and the ground game does not. Watch Jaquari Lewis's carries early. If he is getting four and five yards on first down instead of two, this offense finally has both halves.
The receiving corps has already held up its end. True freshman tight end Gavin Barber made his first career start at NC State and caught the game-tying touchdown; Nate Branch set season highs with nine catches for 87 yards; Sam Pickett III went for 97 yards including a 54-yard grab. A fourth straight week of newcomer production is not nothing for a roster this new.
Keep the stakes honest. A win nudges App State's odds of reaching the Conference Championship Game to about 1.5%, a loss drops them near 0.3%. Small either way, and the real value is a 1-0 conference start for a team the Sun Belt coaches picked sixth in the seven-team East. The one-score loss in Raleigh ended the 3-0 start but fit a pattern. Nine of App State's last 10 games against Power 4 opponents have been decided by 10 points or fewer. The Mountaineers can hang with anybody for three quarters. Saturday is about finally finishing a full game in a league where it counts.
The interactive guide has the full picture, and the methodology explains where the numbers come from.