Boise State scored on its opening drive, led 15-0 at halftime, and pushed the margin to 32-0 before Cole Cabana's 2-yard run with 1:03 left gave Western Michigan its only points in a 32-7 loss. The Broncos totaled 223 yards on 12 first downs, 113 rushing and 110 passing; their one sustained first-half drive ended in a missed field goal, and a third-quarter possession died when Broc Lowry's catchable third-and-short throw bounced off Emazon Littlejohn's hands and the fourth-down try failed.
That is the sort of afternoon that rearranges a season. Boise State was a 7.5-point road favorite, so nobody promised Western Michigan a win, but losing by 25 is a different result than losing by seven, and the reporting out of Kalamazoo is blunt about what it cost. This was Boise State's 11th straight win over a MAC opponent, and it dropped Western Michigan to 2-2 while severely damaging the Broncos' Group of Six playoff-resume hopes in a game anticipated as a chance to land a signature win to bolster a playoff resume. The realistic ambition left is the one the MAC's head coaches handed them in July, when they picked Western Michigan first with 138 points and nine first-place votes. Win the league again.
Two things from Saturday should shape what you watch at Buffalo. Lowry, the reigning MAC Offensive Player of the Year, finished 15-of-28 for 110 yards with an interception and was replaced by Trey Petty in the fourth quarter once the outcome was settled. Not an injury, just a decided game, but a benching that puts the offense's ceiling squarely back in front of head coach Taylor and offensive coordinator Walt Bell. And Greer Martini's defense recorded zero sacks, with cornerback Joshua Franklin leading the team with 10 tackles ahead of linebackers Brenden Anes, Justin Betts and Domanick Moon. A secondary player out-tackling the front seven is what a missing pass rush looks like. The 2025 champions averaged 204.2 rushing yards a game and got 43 sacks out of that defense. Neither number is close to being matched right now.
Buffalo is where you find out whether any of that travels. Western Michigan opened at Michigan and hosted Boise State as its fourth nonconference game, and now plays three of its first four MAC games on the road, this trip followed by consecutive visits to Central Michigan and Toledo. Buffalo's own Saturday is an invitation. FCS Robert Morris gained 316 total yards against the Bulls, including a 50-yard rushing touchdown by quarterback Carson Haggard. If Lowry, Jalen Buckley and the offensive line cannot run and finish drives against that front, the problem is bigger than one bad Saturday under the lights.
The game itself
Western Michigan at Buffalo, Saturday at 1 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The model gives the Broncos a 66% chance to win, and the swing is the biggest number on the board this week. With a win, their odds of reaching the MAC title game sit at 66%, and with a loss they fall to 28%. Those are two alternative versions of next week, not a slide from one to the other. Nothing else on the slate comes within ten points of that.
Elsewhere in the MAC
Four league games can nudge Western Michigan's path, all of them on ESPN+ Saturday, all of them working the same way. A loss by a team the Broncos are racing improves their standing in the title-game chase.
Ohio at Kent State: root for Kent State
3:30 p.m. ET. Kent State wins this 25% of the time, and an Ohio loss is worth about 5.2 percentage points to Western Michigan's title-game odds, the most valuable outside result available. Ohio is the credible East contender here, which is exactly why the upset pays.
Toledo at Ball State: root for Ball State
Ball State is a long shot here.
2 p.m. ET. Ball State's chance is 6%, with a Toledo loss worth roughly 2.8 points of title-game odds. Toledo is also Western Michigan's Week 8 road opponent, so a stumble in Muncie would dent the team most likely to decide the West. Just don't plan your afternoon around it.
Akron at Central Michigan: root for Akron
An Akron win would be an upset.
3:30 p.m. ET. Akron wins 9% of the time, so expect Central Michigan to handle this; a Chippewas loss would be worth about 2.4 points. Watch it anyway, because the Broncos visit Mount Pleasant in Week 7.
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts: root for Eastern Michigan
3:30 p.m. ET. The likeliest of the helpful upsets at 38%, and the smallest payoff at roughly 2.2 points, because a Massachusetts loss trims one more team from the standings clutter.
Taylor said his team prepared at an elite level against Boise State and then may have gotten caught up emotionally in the spotlight instead of executing the way it had against Michigan and Toledo. A 1 p.m. kickoff in Amherst, New York, offers no spotlight at all, which is why this one should tell you something.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the methodology explains how the projections are built.