Beau Pribula completed 24 of 28 passes for 279 yards and four touchdowns and ran for a fifth score as Virginia built a 35-3 lead and routed Delaware 42-3 on Saturday at Scott Stadium. On the opening drive of that game, Virginia allowed two sacks, and by the end Virginia's line had allowed five sacks again. Two of those came late, with backups in as reserves played through third-quarter rain. Five sacks against Delaware, the second straight game Virginia's usually-dominant offensive line has struggled, against an FCS opponent Virginia outgained 556-160.
The part that should hold a fan's attention is that All-ACC left guard Noah Josey was back. He had left the West Virginia loss in the second quarter with an ankle injury after roughly 20 snaps, with Ben York finishing the game on 55, and the easy explanation for the protection trouble was that Virginia's best interior lineman wasn't on the field. Josey started against Delaware as a game captain, and the line still allowed five sacks and averaged 2.9 yards per carry. The excuse is gone. The problem isn't.
That matters because of what's next rather than what just happened. Virginia plays at Florida State on Saturday, Oct. 3, 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2, the away team, and the favorite, at about a 60% chance to win. On Nov. 8, 2014, No. 2 Florida State beat Virginia 34-20, with Jameis Winston throwing for 261 yards.
Root for Pribula to get clean pockets on early downs, and watch how Virginia handles pressure looks it hasn't seen since the West Virginia loss. West Virginia blitzed on 21 of his 37 dropbacks and mixed man, bailout and Cover 2 behind it; Virginia went 6-of-16 on third down, 3-of-9 when it needed five or more yards, and Tony Elliott said the offense "became more one-dimensional while we were playing from behind." Pribula himself has been the steady part. No interceptions through that stretch, efficient going back to his debut, when he went 9-of-11 for 155 yards with two touchdowns and ran 15 times for 110 yards while a committee of Jekail Middlebrook, Xavier Brown and others split the carries behind him. He does not need rescuing. The five guys in front of him need a clean night.
Elliott, after challenging Virginia to learn from the West Virginia loss, called the Delaware win "a reflection of how they responded" in practice. Fine, but Delaware and Norfolk State can't confirm that, and the preseason ACC media poll picked Virginia sixth of 17, only 19 points clear of eighth-place Virginia Tech. Florida State's front, unlike Delaware's, can turn the protection breakdowns Virginia has been surviving into drive-ending sacks.
Two other things worth tracking. Jason Hammond, sidelined by a left elbow injury, didn't play against Delaware, and the rotation of Darrion Henry-Young, Kervins Choutte and Sichan John held Delaware under 90 rushing yards, with John getting his first career sack.
And the back end. Virginia allowed 437 yards to West Virginia, including six pass plays of 15-plus yards, more explosives in one night than in the first two games combined, and Elliott's explanation was blunt. "If you misfit it, kind of like we did early in the game, it goes for a touchdown." A misfit or two on the perimeter at Doak Campbell is how a one-score road game gets away.
The stakes are real. Win and Virginia's playoff odds sit near 11% with its ACC title-game chances around 33%; lose and those land closer to 4% and 13%. Those are two different versions of October, not a number that drifts during the game.
The rest of Saturday
Virginia's own game is the only one that moves much.
Boston College at SMU: root for Boston College
This result carries a 5.0 percentage-point impact on Virginia's conference-title-game probability.
Noon ET on The CW Network. A Boston College win would be an outright shock, about a 10% chance, but SMU is both an ACC title-race rival and Virginia's Week 7 road opponent, so a loss here dents the team most likely to be ahead of the Cavaliers in the standings. Worth five percentage points on Virginia's title-game odds, 29.6% with the upset against 24.7% without it. Fun to want; not something to plan around.
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech: root for Virginia Tech
This result carries a 4.2 percentage-point impact on Virginia's conference-title-game probability.
Friday, 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. Yes, that Virginia Tech. Pittsburgh is the conference rival whose record actually competes with Virginia's for a championship-game spot, and the Hokies are home underdogs at about 35%.
Louisville at NC State: root for NC State
3:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network, head-to-head with Virginia's kickoff. Louisville was picked ahead of Virginia in the preseason poll and is the contender to push down here. NC State wins about 40% of the time, worth 3.8 percentage points on Virginia's title-game odds.
Miami at Clemson: root for Clemson
This result carries a 2.0 percentage-point impact on Virginia's playoff probability.
7:30 p.m. ET on ABC. Fourth-ranked Miami was the preseason favorite to win the league, and Clemson at home is a 16% proposition. This one is the only outside game that touches playoff math rather than the standings, 10.1% for Virginia if Clemson pulls it off, 8.1% if Miami rolls on. Virginia will be off the field well before this one ends, and how the line held up in Tallahassee will shape its October more than whether Clemson springs it.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the methodology explains how the simulations work.