Oregon State's front sacked EJ Colson seven times, five of them before halftime in Saturday's 33-7 loss.
That is the part that stings. A week earlier at Michigan, UTEP had a 14-7 lead in the second quarter. Michigan then outscored the Miners 45-3 the rest of the way, but the first half was real football played by real Miners. Oregon State outgained UTEP 451-220.
That contrast is the whole season in miniature. UTEP has lost more than it won for three straight years, 5-7 in 2022, then 3-9 and 3-9, and Scotty Walden, who went 3-9 in his first season as head coach in 2024, is trying to bend that line. He rebuilt the staff around him, pairing new co-offensive coordinator Lanear Sampson with promoted co-offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach Joe Pappalardo while elevating Kyle Beyer to defensive coordinator alongside co-defensive coordinator Kelvin Sigler. That reorganized offense has not moved the ball against anyone with a functional defensive line.
Colson is the clearest read on it. At Michigan he went 7-of-9 for 86 yards and two touchdowns, then threw his first interception of the season on third-and-21, returned for a touchdown that pushed it to 45-14. Against Oregon State he was sacked five times before halftime. The quarterback is not the problem so much as the protection around him. Seven sacks allowed is a bad sentence.
The defense is where the disappointment cuts deepest, because pressure was supposed to be the identity that survived the rebuild. UTEP's 2025 defense recorded 28 sacks and 86 tackles for loss, and its 7.2 tackles for loss per game ranked first in Conference USA and 10th nationally. Against Oregon State that front did not get home once.
Saturday in Albuquerque
UTEP plays at New Mexico on Saturday, October 3, kicking at 2 p.m. Mountain time on MW+. It is the first time these two have met as conference opponents since 1998, when they were both in the WAC. For a fanbase that spent decades wanting exactly this, the timing is cruel. The landmark arrives six days after the Oregon State loss.
The model gives UTEP a 3.7% chance to win, and projects roughly 1.3 conference wins across eight league games. New Mexico comes in at 3-1 after routing New Mexico State 42-18. The last time these programs played, in 2022 in Albuquerque, New Mexico won 27-10 and forced seven UTEP turnovers, a fair preview of how this goes if the offensive line plays the way it did Saturday.
So watch the first quarter and nothing else, at least at first. Not the scoreboard. The snaps. Does Colson get to finish his reads? Does UTEP run the ball on early downs without losing yardage? Does Beyer's front hit the quarterback once? If UTEP is within a score at the end of the first quarter, the Michigan half was the truer version of this team and there are winnable games at home in October.
Nothing else on the board Saturday changes anything for UTEP. This one is the whole week.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the forecasting details are in the methodology.