Aidan Armenta completed 79 percent of his passes for 278 yards and two touchdowns against Florida Atlantic on Saturday, including a 75-yard strike to LT Robinson. UL Monroe lost 45-17 anyway, because Florida Atlantic outgained the Warhawks 567-332 and the ground game contributed almost nothing on a night when neither team turned the ball over.
That is the strange shape of this week. The one thing that went right belonged to a quarterback nobody expected to be on the field. A report on September 20 had Austin Carlisle penciled in to start again because he had "been more efficient", and Carlisle had in fact held the job since Week 2, when he was the only ULM quarterback credited with a pass or rush at UAB, gaining 93 net rushing yards with a touchdown while throwing for just 56. Armenta did not play in that game, and RotoWire listed his status as undisclosed, with no source reviewed stating the reason. He was back in relief against SE Louisiana. Then he started against FAU, again without an explanation.
Now the room may be full again. Carlisle missed the FAU game with an undisclosed injury and is looking to return for the Sun Belt opener. Watch who takes the first snap in Mobile. That single decision tells you more about ULM's next two months than the final score will.
Everything around the decision is still broken. The rushing attack that produced Derrick Jameson's 85 yards and two touchdowns against SE Louisiana has yet to prove it can do that against an FBS front, and South Alabama's is a physical one. New offensive coordinator Jesse Montalto's unit has put up one big yardage night, against an FCS opponent, and little else, and the defense recorded no sacks against FAU and gave up 567 yards, including a 75-yard touchdown pass, with RJ Hall's eight tackles the leading individual line and a 73-yard punt return adding to the damage. Four games in, the arrows point down.
And the record is real. ULM is 0-4, the backdrop to every snap Saturday.
The game
UL Monroe at South Alabama, Saturday at 6 p.m. CT on ESPN+. It is UL Monroe's Sun Belt opener and South Alabama's Homecoming, which means a full stadium and a host that would very much like to look the part. South Alabama leads the series 7-5 and has won the last four meetings.
The simulation gives ULM about a 9 percent chance, which is roughly where a winless team on the road against a favored division opponent belongs. Nobody should pretend otherwise. But there is no conference math to protect here and nothing to hedge. The Warhawks' projected conference finish is 1.2 wins, so a win Saturday would be most of what the model expects from them all season. That makes this the cheapest kind of week to enjoy. Ask for something specific and watch for it. A starting quarterback who looks like the answer for November, a first-quarter drive that gets finished, a sack. Anything that suggests the passing game that showed up against FAU can pull the run game and the defense along with it.
Two weeks after Mobile, Louisiana Tech comes to Monroe for the first time since 2000. Getting there with a win in hand would change what that afternoon feels like.
Full picture at the Week 5 guide, and the numbers are explained in the methodology.