Down 21-14 in the fourth quarter Saturday, Kadin Semonza threw an interception and Will Hall took him out, sending true freshman Trace Johnson onto the field for the first snaps of his career. Semonza had gone 12-of-24 for 129 yards and a touchdown; Johnson went 2-of-5 for 35, including a 29-yard throw to tight end Dawson Johnson. Then Maurice Turner took over the game anyway, 12 carries, 200 yards, two touchdowns, including a 74-yard go-ahead run with 5:26 left, the second 200-yard rushing night in Yulman Stadium history. Southern Miss still had a chance to tie until Tulane's TJ Smith blocked a short field goal inside the final two minutes. Tulane won 24-21, as roughly an 18.5-point favorite.
That is the whole season in one night. Tulane closed its nonconference slate at 2-2, opening at defending ACC champion Duke, hosting South Alabama, visiting Kansas State, hosting Southern Miss, and now takes its first open week before American play starts at Army. The run game is the identity Hall promised. Turner did it with Jamauri McClure still out with a foot injury, and the offensive line allowed just three sacks against Southern Miss. The quarterback spot, meanwhile, is roughly where it was in August, when four players were still competing. Hall did not say after Saturday who starts at Army. Nobody should assume it is settled.
The defense gave Hall the one clean answer of the night. Tulane's defense played its best game of the year, holding Southern Miss 3-of-14 on third down with four sacks and seven tackles for loss, and it did that with linebacker Chris Rodgers, an 80-tackle returner last season, missing a third straight game with no reported timetable. Jack Tchienchou, who led the team with 83 tackles in 2025, had seven; corner E'zaiah Shine is still there from the group that started 14 games a year ago. The returning back seven is finally playing like it. The open question from Saturday is Armani Cargo, who was carted off with 5:38 left in the first quarter with no diagnosis reported afterward. Two weeks before Army is the best possible time to find out.
What to watch elsewhere
Tulane is idle, so the week's value is entirely in the American standings. Temple and Tulsa are both heavy underdogs, so watch them for fun rather than counting on either. Tulane's own path is the one that matters. The model gives the Green Wave a 38% shot at Army in Week 6.
Temple at South Florida: root for Temple
This result carries a 3.6 percentage-point impact on Tulane's conference-title-game probability.
South Florida is the league's clearest obstacle in Tulane's way, and the Bulls are also Tulane's Week 13 opponent. A Temple win would put an early conference loss on USF's record; the model has Temple at about 10% to get it. If Temple pulls it off, Tulane's conference title-game chances sit near 18.6%, versus about 15.1% if South Florida holds serve.
North Texas at Tulsa: root for Tulsa
This result carries a 3.0 percentage-point impact on Tulane's conference-title-game probability.
North Texas has been the American's standard-bearer opposite Tulane, and the Mean Green visit Yulman in Week 12. Tulsa is a 12% home underdog. The branches are roughly 18.1% title-game odds for Tulane if Tulsa wins, about 15% if North Texas does.
Neither is likely, and neither changes what October actually turns on. Whether Hall names a quarterback and Turner keeps running like that. Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the methodology explains how the simulations work.