Gavin Griffin carried 11 times for 66 yards Saturday night in Logan, and Troy as a team rushed for 169 yards on roughly 31 carries, 5.5 yards a pop. Troy still lost 21-10. The Trojans led 10-7 at the half, then watched Utah State score 14 unanswered third-quarter points on a 5-yard touchdown catch and a 6-yard touchdown run and never scored again. Goose Crowder went 25-of-49 for 226 yards with one touchdown, a 13-yard throw to Howard Kinchen, and three interceptions. Those three interceptions, along with two missed Troy field goals, ended Troy's late scoring threats.
That is the whole argument about Adam Austin's offense in one night. Austin replaced Sean Reagan as coordinator and quarterbacks coach this offseason, the one major staff change Gerad Parker made, with defensive coordinator Dontae Wright and co-coordinator Nathan Burton both staying, and he installed a wide-open, RPO-based spread meant to pair a downhill run game with a vertical passing attack. Four games in, the downhill half is showing up. The finishing half is not. Troy converted just 4 of 13 third downs, 31 percent. Seven penalties for 75 yards is better than the twelve-for-120 that drew Parker's public criticism in Week 2, but three of those flags came during Utah State's decisive scoring drive, which is the version of a penalty problem that actually costs games.
The encouraging counterweight is the defense. Troy produced both of Utah State's turnovers. Troy forced an interception and recovered a fumble jarred loose from a Utah State receiver. That unit still surrendered 413 yards and 21 points, so this is not a shutdown performance. But the disruption that has been Troy's identity came back, and it came back in a game where the offense needed a short field and got one.
Troy has an unusual insurance policy behind Crowder. Tucker Kilcrease led the team with 1,537 passing yards in 2025, while Crowder threw for 1,327 and a team-high 11 touchdowns. The quarterback room was supposed to be the steady part of this overhaul. Right now the live question is not who takes the snaps, it is whether the one taking them stops giving the ball away on Troy's most important possessions.
Troy has a nine-day bye before opening Sun Belt play at home against Southern Miss on Oct. 6. That is the first game that touches the West race, and the model gives Troy roughly a 14 percent chance of reaching the conference title game as things stand. Which makes this week's Sun Belt results worth an hour of your Saturday.
UL Monroe at South Alabama: root for UL Monroe
The model gives UL Monroe a 9% chance to win.
South Alabama is a West rival Troy visits in November, and every conference loss the Jaguars take is one Troy does not have to make up in the standings. The problem is the price. South Alabama wins this about 91 percent of the time, so UL Monroe pulling the upset is a 9 percent proposition. If it happens, Troy's title-game odds sit near 16.3 percent instead of the 13.7 percent that follows a South Alabama win, a swing of about 2.5 percentage points. Fun to watch for, not something to plan around.
Arkansas State at Louisiana: root for Arkansas State
The model gives Arkansas State a 24% chance to win. This result carries a 2.1 percentage-point impact on Troy's conference-title-game probability.
Better odds, similar payoff. Arkansas State wins in Lafayette about 24 percent of the time, and Louisiana is the team Troy visits in Week 7 as a clear underdog. A Red Wolves win puts Troy's title-game number around 15.6 percent; a Louisiana win puts it near 13.4 percent. Arkansas State is also a November opponent, so you are cheering for a team you will want to lose later. That is conference math for you.
Neither result changes Troy's season. Both are free upside while the Trojans sit out. The real week is the one after this, when Troy opens Sun Belt play against Southern Miss. The full board and the model behind these numbers are at the interactive guide, with the methodology if you want to see how the simulations are built.