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Texas A&M · 2026 · Week 5
Published September 27, 2026

Texas A&M is out of the rankings and out of excuses against Arkansas

Arkansas at Kyle Field is the softest spot left on the schedule.

Texas A&M hosts Montana State at Kyle Field.
Texas A&M hosts Montana State at Kyle Field in 2007.
CreditPhoto creditCAZ from U.S.A.Wikimedia Commons · CC BY 2.0Cropped to 16:9, resized and converted to WebP by Fan Watch.

Marcel Reed went 10-of-26 for 106 yards with an interception and no touchdowns in Baton Rouge, and lost 13 yards on 10 carries, before backup Brady Hart came on and threw an interception of his own. The Aggies are 2-2, 0-2 in the SEC, and they were dropped out of the AP Top 25 entirely, the program's first week without a single vote since September 2023.

That is the week Arkansas walks into Kyle Field on Saturday. Texas A&M lost to LSU 35-6 in Week 4.

The coordinators and the line both got beaten

The two questions Aggie fans have carried since August both got answered in one night, and neither answer was the one anybody wanted.

The first was the coordinator promotions. Elko kept the staff inside the building, elevating Holmon Wiggins to offensive coordinator and Lyle Hemphill to defensive coordinator, and the bet was that familiarity would cost nothing. Four games in, postgame reporting faulted both men, Wiggins for abandoning the run despite early success, Hemphill for a defense that allowed a hobbled LSU quarterback to throw for 312 yards, and described the unit as having "regressed" from 2025. The one bright spot was that A&M's defense intercepted an injured Leavitt once during the game.

The second was the rebuilt offensive line, and it got beaten in the plainest way possible. With Lamont Rogers inserted at right tackle, the line gave up four sacks, and once A&M fell behind the run game simply stopped existing. Rueben Owens II finished with 11 carries for 62 yards en route to a team rushing total under 100 yards. A year ago in Fayetteville the Aggies ran for 219.

Elko did not hedge about any of it. Asked whether a quarterback change was coming, he answered simply, "no," and said the team "got our butts whooped" and "we have to play better football. I don't know what else to say." Read that as information, not drama. Reed starts, the coordinators keep calling plays, and whatever fixing happens has to happen with the people already in the building.

The gap between that and where this was supposed to go is the part that stings. Elko took A&M from 8-5 and 5-3 in the SEC in 2024 to 11-2 and 7-1 in 2025, and SEC media responded by picking the Aggies fourth in the preseason poll with 1,967 points. But even the breakthrough ended sourly. A 27-17 loss at Texas, then a 10-3 home exit to Miami in the playoff. Year 3 was supposed to finish that job. It is now a 2-2 team trying not to lose a third straight game.

The depth chart does not help. Terry Bussey, hurt on the opening kickoff against Kentucky, was ruled out for the rest of the season, which takes a receiver and return man off the roster for good. And A&M has been thin at those spots since the opener, when Elko said Madden Williams would need surgery and miss the season, Daymion Sanford was held out because he "probably needed one more week," and Tawfiq Byard was dealing with a lower-body issue from practice. Watch the receiver and secondary rotations Saturday; the names who get snaps will tell you how much of that depth ever came back.

Arkansas at Texas A&M, Saturday, 6 p.m. CT, ESPN2

The model still makes A&M about an 85% favorite at home, which is roughly where a two-loss SEC team hosting a rebuilding one should sit. That number is also the whole problem. There is no moral victory available. Beat Arkansas and A&M's playoff odds sit around 7.6%; lose and they fall to roughly 2.7%, which in practice means the season becomes about November pride and nothing else.

What's worth watching has less to do with the final margin than with whether Wiggins keeps handing the ball off when the first two drives stall, whether the line lets Reed finish a progression, and whether the defense can put a hat on a ball carrier in space. A 31-10 win built on 180 rushing yards would mean considerably more than a 24-21 escape.

UTEP at New Mexico: root for UTEP

Kickoff is 3 p.m. CT on MW+, and UTEP wins this about 4% of the time, so expect New Mexico to handle it. If the upset does land, A&M's playoff number nudges up about 1.7 percentage points, from 6.9% to 8.5%.

Full game-by-game numbers live in the interactive guide, and the simulation details are in the methodology.

How to watch Texas A&M and the other games that affect their season

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