Fourth-and-1 at Clemson, North Carolina trailing 21-20, and Billy Edwards Jr. dropped back and threw to tight end Jelani Thurman instead of handing the ball off. The pass fell incomplete, Clemson took over on downs, and that was the Tar Heels' last real chance. By that point Benjamin Hall had run 18 times for 130 yards, and Hall told reporters afterward, "I don't think it got any harder to run the ball" after halftime. Bill Belichick defended the call, "I felt like it was a good play", and when asked about the earlier goal-line series, said only, "We missed an opportunity down there. I'll just leave it at that."
Whether Petrino trusts his best unit is the question North Carolina carried through its bye and into Saturday's noon ET kickoff against No. 3 Notre Dame at Kenan Stadium on ESPN. When Bobby Petrino took over the offense, he said the first things he wanted were a precise run game and sound pass protection. At Clemson the run game delivered exactly that and the plan drifted away from it anyway.
Notre Dame does not hand out second chances
The Irish arrive leading the FBS in total defense at 199.3 yards a game, second in scoring defense at 8.3 points, third in turnover margin at plus-8. That is the context for the 3.3% chance the model gives North Carolina. Nobody should sit down Saturday expecting a win.
Two things are worth watching instead. Can UNC's offensive line and backs move a defense nobody has moved, and will the staff stay with the run when the game gets uncomfortable? Edwards' Clemson line was 13-of-30 for 135 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and the shape of it matters more than the totals. His limited mobility became a problem as Clemson caused chaos in the second half. Asking him to win a game through the air against this defense is asking for the second half again. Twelve-play drives that end in field goals would count as progress here.
UNC's own situational numbers point the same direction. The Tar Heels rank 117th nationally in third-down defense at 44.4% and 99th in time of possession at 28:59 a game. Against an offense this efficient, third-down conversions allowed and short UNC possessions are how a 10-7 game becomes 31-7 before the fourth quarter.
The one absence that could change the math
Melkart Abou Jaoude missed the Clemson game with a hand and wrist injury. Reporters covering the team came out of the bye increasingly optimistic he can play against Notre Dame, though no team confirmation had come as of Saturday. Xavier Lewis and the rest of the front produced three sacks at Clemson without him, which is the encouraging part.
Belichick's own read on Clemson was unsentimental. "They just made a few more plays than we did in the last eight minutes of the game," with missed opportunities on offense and missed tackles on defense. Those are fixable things, and this is the week to see whether the bye fixed any of them.
One more reason to care about how Saturday looks rather than just how it ends. That bye was the last one. North Carolina now plays nine consecutive Saturdays from Oct. 3 through Nov. 28, with Pittsburgh, Duke, Syracuse, Miami, UConn, Louisville, Virginia and NC State stacked behind Notre Dame. A team that runs the ball 40 times, keeps the defense rested and loses by 17 walks into Pittsburgh in better shape than one that abandons what works and gets embarrassed.
Full game-by-game numbers are in the interactive guide, and the methodology explains how the projections are built.