Nevada erased a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit at Air Force, tied the game on Herschel Turner's 57-yard touchdown run with 1:49 left, and lost 36-33 in double overtime when Rocco Conti ran it in from the 7. It was also the first game all season the Wolf Pack did not turn the ball over, a direct answer to the three giveaways that handed Middle Tennessee 14 points a week earlier, after which Jeff Choate's message was simply that Nevada had to take care of the football.
The ledger says something colder. The loss dropped Nevada to 1-3 overall and 0-1 in Mountain West play, and Choate's first two Nevada teams went 3-10 and 3-9. Year three was supposed to be where that changes. Three weeks ago Choate said after the Montana State loss that the coaching staff hadn't done as good a job as it could have of making sure players were in a position to win; this time the preparation held up and the scoreboard still didn't. Performance is climbing, the record isn't. Both things are true at once, and the second one is what a fan has to live with in October.
Two things went the other way. Nevada's defense gave up 373 rushing yards through three quarters to Air Force's option before it stiffened enough to force overtime. EJ Smith made 21 tackles, which is a linebacker being run at all night rather than a linebacker taking a game over. And Carter Jones left in the third quarter after hitting his head on the ground on a tackle, returned in the fourth to lead the last regulation drive, and Nevada offered no postgame update on his condition. That is the second time this season Jones's health has gone unexplained after a game.
Nevada is idle this week before the October 10 trip to UTEP, and the schedule's biggest emotional date, the Fremont Cannon game at UNLV on November 28, with a four-game rivalry losing streak attached, is still two months off and untouched by anything that has happened. A week off is not nothing for a defense that just spent a night chasing option snaps.
UTEP at New Mexico: root for UTEP
This result carries a 2.2 percentage-point impact on Nevada's conference-title-game probability.
New Mexico is a Mountain West team Nevada is chasing, and it hosts UTEP on Saturday. A UTEP win puts a loss on a conference rival's record. Nevada's shot at reaching the title game sits at about 9.5% in that branch versus roughly 7.3% if New Mexico wins, a swing of a bit more than two percentage points.
Temper it. UTEP is given about a 4% chance of winning in Albuquerque. New Mexico is a heavy favorite at home, so the upset is a long shot with a small payoff. The direct version comes later. Nevada hosts New Mexico on November 7, and winning that one closes the same standings gap the Wolf Pack are currently asking UTEP to close for them.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the simulation details are on the methodology page.