On Washington's second drive, Anthony Smith came into the backfield unblocked and hit Demond Williams Jr. as he threw; the throw came out errant, Maverick Baranowski intercepted it, and Minnesota scored on the next play. That was the shape of the whole night in Seattle. Minnesota won 27-24 for its first true road win since a 24-7 victory at Wisconsin on Nov. 29, 2024, and the defense, not the offense, is why.
Minnesota sacked Williams seven times, held Washington to 1-for-10 on third down and 40 rushing yards on 27 carries, and intercepted him twice. Baranowski finished with seven tackles, two tackles for loss, the interception and the final defensive stop of the game. Minnesota recorded 39 sacks in 2025 and Smith led the Big Ten with 12.5 of them, so the pass rush was supposed to be the identity here. Washington was the first opponent good enough to make that mean something. Remember how the month was built. There were three home nonconference games against Eastern Illinois, Mississippi State and Akron, then Big Ten play opening with Minnesota's first trip to Seattle since 1976. The runway ended and the defense passed.
Why Michigan is the right opponent for this defense
Michigan comes to Huntington Bank Stadium at noon ET Saturday on FOX for the 100th Little Brown Jug game, the oldest trophy game in FBS football.
Michigan arrives 0-1 in the Big Ten after a 20-19 home loss to Iowa, a game in which it went 2-for-4 in the red zone and drew what coach Kyle Whittingham called "excessive" penalties. False starts and field goals instead of touchdowns are exactly the currency Smith and this pass rush deal in. Michigan opened as an 8.5-point favorite and had been bet to -6.5 by Saturday. The simulations give Minnesota a 31% chance at home. That is an underdog number, not a hopeless one, and the path through it runs almost entirely through pressure and takeaways.
The part that still worries
Drake Lindsey was 15-of-16 for 125 yards and all three touchdowns in the first half, then 6-of-13 for 79 yards with an interception after halftime. Darius Taylor, who had missed the previous game, returned and carried 19 times for 36 yards with four catches for 36 yards, while Minnesota managed just 35 rushing yards on 17 second-half carries. Even the third phase went quiet. Javon Tracy took four punts for 27 yards against Washington's coverage unit, including a fair catch at the Minnesota 12 and a minus-2-yard return, a long way from the 80-yard, touchdown-setting week before. Against overmatched teams he breaks games open; against Power-conference coverage he has now been contained twice. Don't plan on a return score bailing out a stalled drive.
So the honest version of Saturday is that Minnesota probably cannot outscore Michigan in a clean, wide-open game. It can win an ugly one. Sacks, false starts, a stalled Michigan red-zone trip settled for three points, Lindsey needing four or five efficient drives rather than fifteen.
The stakes are simple enough. Minnesota was picked tenth in a Big Ten preseason media poll, and Anthony Smith was named the Big Ten's Preseason Defensive Player of the Year, the projection said middle of the pack, the one genuine star said defense. Beating a favored Michigan team at home, with the Jug on the line, would settle which of those two readings has been right. Nothing on the rest of the Saturday slate changes what this game is worth; put the remote down at noon and leave it there.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the methodology explains where the projections come from.