Roman Gagliano threw a 32-yard touchdown to Markus Allen early in the third quarter at Jacksonville State, and for a few minutes Middle Tennessee led its Conference USA opener. Then the drives stopped. Gagliano finished 18 of 28 for 216 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, and the Blue Raiders still lost 23-13. Jacksonville State outgained them 517-319 and ran for 276 yards at 7.1 per carry while Middle Tennessee managed roughly 103 on the ground. Middle Tennessee gave the ball away zero times, Jacksonville State twice, and it did not matter.
The scoring was the worse number. Middle Tennessee's rushing attack fell back to roughly 103 yards, and the offense scored only 13 points in its Conference USA-opening loss to Jacksonville State. Jacksonville State was favored by 7.5 to 8.5 points and won by 10, so nobody was blindsided by the result, but the 36 combined points went well under a 51.5-point total.
What the offensive reset has and hasn't delivered
This was supposed to be the area that moved. Derek Mason replaced offensive coordinator Bodie Reeder with Anthony Scelfo and also brought in new coaches for the offensive line, running backs and tight ends, not a one-hire tweak but a rebuild of the room. Scelfo came from Southeastern Louisiana, where his 2025 offense ranked 22nd in the FCS in red-zone offense, 32nd in scoring and 38th in rushing on a 9-4 team. The promise was a ground game and finished drives.
It matters because Mason is in his third season on a five-year contract that began in 2024, and the Blue Raiders went 3-9 overall and 2-6 in conference play in both 2024 and 2025. Year 3 was the year the scoreboard was supposed to reflect the changes.
Kansas, and the one number in Middle Tennessee's favor
Middle Tennessee plays at Kansas on Saturday at 11 a.m. Central on ESPNU, and Kansas is the only Power Four opponent on the entire 2026 schedule. Every other game is against FCS, Sun Belt, Mountain West or Conference USA competition. Kansas opened as a 20.5-point favorite. The simulation gives Middle Tennessee an 18% chance to win, which is roughly what you would guess and also not zero.
The reason it is not zero is the thing that kept Gagliano's name in the box score all September. Kansas ranks 128th nationally with a minus-5 turnover margin, having lost six turnovers in two power-conference games, while Middle Tennessee sits ninth at plus-6. Middle Tennessee's best statistical category is Kansas' worst. If the Blue Raiders win the ball three times, they do not need to out-gain anybody to hang around into the fourth quarter.
The honest caveat came from Jacksonville State. Middle Tennessee already played one clean game and lost by 10 anyway, because it could not run and could not sustain drives. Turnovers buy possessions. Somebody still has to move the ball with them, and against Kansas' front that means Antonio Martin Jr. and Terrence Brown Jr. getting the ground game back above 130 or so rather than Gagliano throwing 30 times from behind.
Keep the stakes in proportion. Athlon Sports ranked Middle Tennessee No. 133 of 138 FBS teams entering the season and called improvement crucial after Mason's 6-18 start. A win in Lawrence would be the biggest thing this program has done under Mason. Nothing on the rest of the schedule, Delaware, FIU, Kennesaw State, the November rivalry date, depends on this result, and the conference math is untouched by it either way. That is permission to enjoy the swing. Watch the first two Kansas possessions for a Blue Raider takeaway, watch the first-quarter carry count, and if Middle Tennessee is within two scores at halftime, the rest of the morning is free entertainment.
Full week details in the interactive guide, with forecast notes on the methodology page.