Owen Long intercepted Isaiah Marshall at the Arizona State 6 with 9:34 left in London, the third Kansas giveaway of the day and, like the other two, one that came in Arizona State territory. Earlier, a Dylan Edwards fumble at the ASU 22 was scooped by Hyrum Vaeono and returned 77 yards to the Kansas 2, setting up the touchdown that made it 24-7.
That is the whole reason a 20.5-point home game against Middle Tennessee is worth watching closely. Kansas hosts the Blue Raiders at 11 a.m. Central on Saturday on ESPNU, and the model gives the Jayhawks an 82% chance to win. The number nobody in Lawrence should ignore is the other one. Kansas sits 128th nationally at minus-5 in turnover margin, six giveaways against one takeaway in its two power-conference games, while Middle Tennessee ranks ninth at plus-6. Kansas has also failed to cover the spread in either game this season. Talent gap or not, the fastest route to a nervous fourth quarter is the one Kansas has already taken twice.
What Marshall has and hasn't shown
Marshall went 13 of 30 for 168 yards with two touchdowns, two interceptions, a lost fumble and four sacks, a day Lance Leipold called uncharacteristically inaccurate while making clear Kansas never considered a quarterback change. The center exchange compounded it. Kasen Carpenter put four snaps over Marshall, and Leipold traced the problem to mechanics, saying that sometimes the center "is moving and snapping instead of getting the snap first." Marshall's own fix was practical. He wants five to 10 sideline snaps before each drive.
The depth chart behind him is still unsettled. Cole Ballard took a hit throwing a six-yard trick-play pass to Marshall against Missouri and came back from the locker room with his right arm in a sling; he was ruled out before the London game with Rice transfer Chase Jenkins named the backup, and Leipold said he was confident Jenkins "can run our offense and lead our team." Jenkins never took a snap that night. A 20.5-point spread is the rare Saturday where Kansas could play Jenkins for a series and learn something at no cost.
The run game, and who's left to run it
Andy Kotelnicki came back from Penn State to rebuild the identity that produced 7.0 yards per play and 211.3 rushing yards a game in 2023, and the designs are there, with Ballard in the slot, Edwards and Yasin Willis in wildcat looks, guard Connor Stroh pulling in motion, designs that visibly caught Missouri off guard. What hasn't arrived is the part that scores. Third-and-4 is where this offense either shows up or doesn't, and Saturday is the last chance to sort it out against a defense that can't punish a mistake.
The complication is the backfield. Willis left the Arizona State game in the second quarter and spent the second half in a walking boot on his right foot, no diagnosis reported; with Justin Thurman and Kory Amachree already out and Jalen Dupree limited, Leipold called the running back depth "extremely" concerning. So watch the rotation. Whether Micah Johnson, John Kelly or Jack Reeves earns real carries behind Edwards matters more than the final margin, because Middle Tennessee is the last non-conference game before eight straight Big 12 games, five of them on the road, starting at Utah.
No other result Saturday changes anything for Kansas. A 45-10 afternoon with clean snaps, a healthy Edwards and a second running back who can carry a series sends the Jayhawks to Utah with the giveaway habit behind them; a 24-17 grind with two more turnovers in Blue Raider territory sends them there with it intact.
The interactive guide has the week's full picture, and the methodology explains how the numbers are built.