Florida beat Ole Miss 52-28 at home, and Jadan Baugh ran 29 times for 142 yards and three touchdowns and Aaron Philo kept the offense on schedule.
Florida, a 3.5-point home favorite, won by 24 points, 52-28, over No. 4 Ole Miss, and that is not a normal Saturday. Jon Sumrall arrived at Florida with a 43-12 head-coaching record built on quick turnarounds at Troy and Tulane, and this is the first result that looks like that résumé rather than a promise of it. Baugh's fifth straight 100-yard game tied Emmitt Smith and Fred Taylor for the third-longest such streak in program history. Philo went 16-of-23 for 196 yards with a touchdown pass and a 1-yard touchdown run in his first game this season against a top-five opponent. Not spectacular, but the first-year starter did not need to be, and the question of whether he could handle real defensive speed now has a yes attached to it. Even the discipline problem improved. Florida took eight penalties for 92 yards after 16 for 138 at Auburn, with Sumrall saying "I felt we played cleaner" while making clear he still wasn't satisfied. Those penalties came at home; holding that line in Columbia on homecoming weekend is the harder version of the same test.
The defense is the unresolved piece. Florida got one sack and four tackles for loss against Ole Miss after seven sacks at Auburn, and it gave up a season-high 426 yards; two takeaways are what kept the score comfortable. Takeaways are not a plan.
The game: Florida at Missouri, Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC
The stakes are as large as anything on Florida's October calendar. A win puts the Gators' playoff odds at about 45%, a loss drops them to roughly 26%. Those are two branches from one afternoon, not a number that moves twice.
Two things make this harder than the rankings suggest. First, Florida hasn't won at Faurot Field since 2019 and is 2-4 there all-time, with Missouri taking the last two meetings in Columbia. Second, Austin Simmons completed 23 of 39 passes for 295 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions against Mississippi State, so the passing game Florida's pass rush would need to bother is functioning.
The encouraging counterweight is that Missouri's own front is thin. Edge rusher Darris Smith was already out, starting defensive end Langdon Kitchen left in the first quarter against Mississippi State with a lower-body injury and didn't return, and cornerback Chris Graves Jr. exited for evaluation. That's the kind of attrition Baugh's carry volume punishes. The exception is Daeden Hopkins, who had 3.5 sacks against Mississippi State, just short of Missouri's single-game record of four. Watch which Florida defensive line shows up in the first quarter. It will tell you most of what you need to know by halftime.
Elsewhere on Saturday
Alabama at Mississippi State: root for Mississippi State
This result carries a 2.3 percentage-point impact on Florida's conference-title-game probability.
Noon ET on ABC. Mississippi State beating No. 7 Alabama at home is a 28% proposition, and it's the most valuable outside result of the day for Florida. A Bulldogs win puts the Gators' SEC title-game odds near 13.6%, an Alabama win near 11.2%. That's a direct standings effect. Alabama is a live contender for the same championship-game berth, and a second conference loss this early is hard to absorb.
Vanderbilt at Georgia: root for Vanderbilt
This result carries a 3.0 percentage-point impact on Florida's conference-title-game probability.
12:45 p.m. ET on SEC Network. A Vanderbilt upset in Athens runs about 11%, so file this one under pleasant daydream rather than plan. But it's the biggest single swing available. Georgia losing pushes Florida's title-game odds to roughly 14.5% instead of 11.6%. Florida also meets Georgia in Week 9, which doesn't change the standings math here. A Bulldogs conference loss helps whether or not Florida ever beats them.
Virginia at Florida State: root for Florida State
This result carries a 1.8 percentage-point impact on Florida's playoff probability.
3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2, same window as Florida's kickoff, so this one is a second-screen check. Florida State is a 40% home underdog here, and the payoff is different in kind. The Seminoles are Florida's regular-season finale in Week 13, so a stronger FSU makes that November win worth more to the playoff committee. Florida's playoff odds sit near 36.0% with an FSU win versus 34.2% without.
Full picture at the interactive guide, with the methodology behind the numbers.