Clemson won 24-10 at Cal with nickel Corian Gipson and defensive tackle Devarrick Woods both ruled out, leaving Amare Adams, Andy Burburija, suspension-returnee Vic Burley and 355-pound converted offensive lineman Dietrick Pennington to play the interior. That was four defensive tackles doing the work of a full rotation. Markus Strong, hurt at LSU, is done for the 2026 season. Adams and Burburija, a junior-college arrival in a class that included 15 transfers, have been starting inside since Strong dropped off the participation report, and this is what a roster that lost 14 starters from 2025 looks like when it gets thin in one spot.
The encouraging part is the sequence. Georgia Southern ran for 22 yards. North Carolina ran for 214 on 39 carries with Benjamin Hall alone going for 130. Then Cal managed 86 rushing yards on Sept. 25. That's the whole question Saturday. The issue is whether holding up against Georgia Southern, a decent UNC ground game and Cal means anything against a line and backfield of this quality. Clemson beat California 24-10 in Week 4.
Clemson hosts Miami on Oct. 3 at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC, and the model gives the Tigers a 16% chance. Oddsmakers opened Miami as roughly a 17-point road favorite. ACC media picked Clemson fourth in the preseason league race, behind Miami, SMU and Louisville, and nothing since has argued otherwise. But Miami has not won inside Memorial Stadium since a 30-21 game on Oct. 2, 2010; its two trips since ended 42-17 and 40-10 the other way. That history doesn't make Clemson the better team. It does mean the building has not been a neutral site for this particular opponent.
Consider what a win would actually buy. Clemson's shot at the ACC championship game sits at 14% in the seasons where it beats Miami and 1.4% in the ones where it doesn't, with playoff odds of 3.2% against 0.3%. Those are two different Octobers, not a number that moves during the game. So watch this one loose. It is the rare game where the downside is already priced in.
The quarterback job is the other live thread. Christopher Vizzina was cleared from his elbow injury and dressed as the backup at Cal, but Swinney stayed with Cade Reynolds, who then had his worst day as a starter, going 13-of-21 for 108 yards, no touchdowns and two turnovers. Chad Morris drew fresh criticism for the flea-flicker that produced Reynolds' first-drive interception and for lining edge rusher Will Heldt up at center to bait Cal offside; beat writers at the Post and Courier and Rubbing the Rock have openly wondered whether that scheme gets "exposed" against a stronger opponent like Miami. Trick plays that cost you a possession against Cal cost you the game against this one.
If you want a single thing to track from the first snap, count how often Miami's backs get past the line of scrimmage untouched.
Full numbers are at the interactive guide, and the methodology explains how the simulation works.