Last November in Cincinnati, Noah Fifita threw a 15-yard fourth-quarter touchdown to Gio Richardson that put Arizona ahead for good in a 30-24 win over the No. 22 Bearcats and made him the program's career leader in touchdown passes. He was out with an injury for Arizona's win at Washington State.
That is the Big 12 home opener's real question is whether Fifita can beat this opponent again with a passing game that no longer has one receiver it trusts to end a game. Arizona beat Washington State 34-24 in Week 4.
What the Washington State win actually showed
Fifita finished 22-of-36 for 297 yards and four touchdowns, two to Tre Spivey and one each to Caleb Smith and Isaiah Mizell, with Spivey going for 129 yards. Nobody has taken Richardson's job. With Richardson out with injury, Fifita's four touchdown passes were spread across three receivers, Tre Spivey twice and Caleb Smith and Isaiah Mizell once each.
The defense gave Arizona its other reason to feel better. Cam Chapa intercepted a pass and Everett Roussaw forced a fumble that Tre Smith recovered, two takeaways against Washington State, with Roussaw playing his first game after missing three. A separate Jay'Vion Cole interception was overturned on booth review.
Brent Brennan has been saying a version of the same thing for two weeks now. After the Northern Illinois win, when Arizona fell behind 10-0 and then led 28-10 at halftime, he said the Wildcats need to start fast in all three phases but that "how we respond matters." Arizona keeps proving the second half of that sentence and keeps failing the first half of it. Washington State and Northern Illinois were rebuilding teams that let Arizona climb back. Cincinnati is 4-0.
What to watch Saturday
Kickoff is 8 p.m. Arizona time Saturday on FOX, and the model makes Arizona a 75% favorite at home. Cincinnati has played its first four games, including its Big 12 opener against Kansas State, in its own backyard; this is the Bearcats' first true road trip, at night.
The specific thing worth tracking early is how Arizona's offense distributes targets when the defense is good enough to take something away. Against Washington State, spreading it around was a strength. Against a better secondary, it can turn into checking down without anybody who wins a contested throw on third down.
The standings math is modest either way. A win nudges Arizona's playoff odds to about 2.9% and its conference-title-game odds to roughly 3.2%; a loss drops those to about 0.8% and 0.4%. Neither branch makes this a season-defining night on paper. What it decides is more immediate. Arizona sits 0-1 in the Big 12 after BYU, and at 4.3 projected conference wins, the Wildcats cannot afford to fall two games under in league play by October. Win, and the West Virginia trip next week becomes a chance to get to .500 in the Big 12 with the schedule still open. Lose, and the Texas Tech and Utah games later start looking like must-haves at 16% and 26%.
Every other game on the board this week is somebody else's business. This one is Arizona's, and it will tell you whether the offense that beat Cincinnati a year ago still works with a different cast catching the ball.
The interactive guide has the full week, and the methodology explains where the numbers come from.