Western Michigan beat Rice 28-21 in Week 3.
Jacurri Brown carried 23 times for 128 yards against Western Michigan on Saturday, ran for a touchdown, and added 11-of-18 passing for 121 more, and Rice still lost 28-21. The Owls converted 1 of 10 third downs. Ahmed Tounkara, credited by the school with four tackles and a sack, broke up a fourth-down pass late. Daeh McCullough finished with seven tackles. Rice moved the ball between the 20s all afternoon, and then, over and over, the down that ended the drive went Western Michigan's way.
That is now the settled pattern of Greer Martini's first season running the defense. Western Michigan promoted its 2025 linebackers coach to defensive coordinator and brought in former Furman coordinator Duane Vaughn as co-defensive coordinator, and they inherited a roster that kept four of the nine leading tacklers from the championship team but not the top three, and not Nadame Tucker or Rodney McGraw, who produced 21.5 of last year's 43 sacks. Transfer edges Scoop Gardner Jr. and KJ Burley arrived with a combined 29.5 tackles for loss and 12.5 sacks between Long Island and Keiser. Against Rice, the pass-rush replacement question is still unanswered. What is not in dispute is 209 rushing yards allowed at 4.8 a carry, 21 points, and a win.
Boise State can turn ground yards into points
Boise State visits Waldo Stadium on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2, the first-ever meeting between the programs. Western Michigan has played on Boise's blue turf twice in Potato Bowls but never against Boise State, and the return trip is booked for 2029. Spencer Danielson spent his week talking Western Michigan up, saying of the Week 1 trip to Ann Arbor, "They absolutely beat Michigan, at Michigan. And that's not hype, that is what happened," and calling the Broncos "an undefeated football team. Period, end of story."
He is also bringing a touchdown road favorite. Sportsbooks have Boise State at 7 points, after opening at 7.5, with a total of 48.5. Our simulation is less committed, giving Western Michigan a 50% chance at home. Win, and the Broncos' odds of reaching the MAC title game stand at 63%; lose, and they stand at 59%. A nonconference game barely moves the league math, so what the Broncos play for Saturday is a home win over a touchdown favorite rather than ground in the MAC race.
If Boise State grinds out ground yards the way Rice did and converts on third down, the trade Martini's defense has been making stops working. Boise State arrives with real questions of its own. Danielson said this week the staff was still evaluating running back Sire Gaines (wrist/hand), right guard Roger Carreon, edge Jayden Virgin-Morgan and safety Derek Ganter Jr. If Gaines and Carreon are limited, the run game Martini's front has to slow down gets considerably more ordinary.
The best help the defense can get is staying on the sideline. Jalen Buckley's 13 carries for 117 yards at Rice, including a 66-yard run that sparked a scoring drive, was the rushing production this offense had been waiting for, though his other 12 carries went for 51 yards, so the honest read is one great play inside a decent day. Western Michigan is 2-1 with two straight wins since the loss at Michigan, and the 2-1 start holds up only if the offense keeps producing long, clock-eating possessions. Three-and-outs put Martini's group back on the field against a better offense than Rice's.
Elsewhere in the MAC
UNLV at Akron: root for UNLV
ESPN+, noon Eastern. UNLV wins this 94% of the time, so it barely qualifies as something to follow. Akron is the team Western Michigan visits in Week 11, and an Akron blowout loss to a nonconference opponent is a hint that November trip should be routine. Western Michigan's title-game odds sit at 61.2% if UNLV wins and 57.6% if Akron pulls the upset, a gap of 3.6 percentage points.
Ball State at Kent State: root for Kent State
Also ESPN+ at noon, and this one is a genuine coin flip at 51% for the home team. Kent State winning hangs an early conference loss on Ball State, which is worth 2.0 percentage points to Western Michigan, 61.9% if Kent State holds serve, 59.9% if Ball State takes it. Small, but it is the only direct league result on the board.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the methodology explains how the simulation gets there.