Richard McKneely stepped in front of an Austin Carlisle throw on the first play of the fourth quarter and walked it 11 yards into the end zone for a 38-20 lead. That was the third ULM giveaway of the afternoon, and the second Southeastern Louisiana touchdown that never required the Lions to run an offensive play. Dkhai Joseph had already taken a 49-yard ULM punt back 78 yards in the third quarter. Fourteen of SE Louisiana's 38 points came on those two returns, which is the entire explanation for how ULM outgained an FCS team 511-279 and lost 38-35 at home.
The offense was not the broken part. ULM piled up 27 first downs and converted nine of 16 third downs. Seven penalties for 60 yards and three turnovers took that output and left it in the loss column.
Neither, on the evidence of one afternoon, was the defense. Southeastern's offense gained 279 yards and, together with a 43-yard field goal, accounted for 24 of the Lions' points. It also got a first look at a different problem than the one coming Saturday. Kyle Lowe threw for 155 yards on an FCS afternoon, and Florida Atlantic's passing game operates on another level entirely.
Saturday, 7 p.m. CT, ESPN+
ULM hosts Florida Atlantic at 7 p.m. Central on Saturday on ESPN+, and the model gives the Warhawks a 38.9% chance at home. FanDuel listed FAU as a 13.5-point favorite, a spread that assumes the Warhawks look like their record rather than their yardage. It is ULM's Homecoming, capping a week of campus events that included a parade and pep rally on Sept. 24, and it closes non-conference play for both programs before Sun Belt play begins at South Alabama. ULM has also owned this series historically, as the Warhawks lead it 7-2, though they are only 2-2 hosting FAU in Monroe, so the home-field part of that history is a coin flip, not an advantage.
What to watch, in order
Carlisle's hands. Carlisle was efficient as a passer, 19-of-24 for 183 yards and two touchdowns, to Parker Fulghum and Nic Trujillo, before two interceptions and a fumble on a sack ended his afternoon. That mix of efficiency and turnovers is why Carlisle remains ULM's starter without erasing the concern about ball security. He is the quarterback; the question is a clean game, and against FAU there will be no 511-yard cushion to waste.
Whether Derrick Jameson repeats. Jameson led ULM with 85 yards and two touchdowns on nine carries, including a 32-yarder, in a 180-yard team rushing day. Bryson Roland led the backfield the week before at UAB, so a second straight Jameson afternoon would be the first sign of a settled lead back in a group rebuilt through the portal.
Holding an FCS offense under 300 yards is not proof against an American Conference passing attack.
The part fans are actually arguing about
Bryant Vincent called the loss "embarrassing" and took the blame himself, saying "it was on me, I didn't have them ready," then said he does not worry about job security. Nothing about Saturday's result decides his future by itself. But a competitive Homecoming game against a two-touchdown favorite is the shortest available path to changing the conversation.
There is a quieter subplot in the same breath. Aidan Armenta, whose 2025 ended with 311 yards and three touchdowns at Louisiana, entered only after the pick-six and threw a 47-yard touchdown to Trujillo to cut it to three. ULM's last chance died on a fourth-and-10 deflection by Kenneth Ford Jr. That three-touchdown finale is why a relief-only role for Armenta still stings around Monroe, and why his 47-yarder restarted the debate rather than ending it. Expect Carlisle to start. Expect the argument to continue if he turns it over twice again.
Full probabilities and the week's board are in the interactive guide, with the simulation details in the methodology.