Down 21-14 with 1:54 left at Louisiana, UAB faced fourth-and-2 at the Louisiana 46 and Ryder Burton kept the ball off right tackle. Collin Jacob punched it loose, the ball went out of bounds 16 yards behind the line, and the game was over. Afterward Mortensen did not hide behind the players. "Ultimately maybe we could've made a better call," he said, adding that he could "help our players more by putting them in a better position there." The 21-14 loss dropped UAB to 1-2. Two yards was all UAB needed there, and two yards was what it could not get.
The rest of the evidence says the same thing. UAB converted 2 of 12 third downs, went 0-for-4 on fourth down, and held the ball for 24:37 against Louisiana's 35:23. The Blazers rushed 31 times for 74 yards, 2.4 per carry, after putting up 194 at Illinois and 266 against ULM. Mortensen's summary was blunt. "I do think there were times where we struggled to control the line of scrimmage. Some of it was in pass protection early, some of it was in the run game too." He called the result "not even close to good enough."
That is the uncomfortable part for UAB fans, because Mortensen personally coordinated this offense since 2022 before he was promoted. The unit that is playing well is the one built out of the portal. Todd Grantham installed a defense organized around pressure, physicality and playmaking, with turnovers treated as a standard rather than a bonus, and at Louisiana it delivered. Sterling Sanders stripped Darrell Smith and Chris Burge returned it 13 yards for a touchdown, Jo'Tavion Pierce forced another fumble that Delvon Gulley recovered, and Louisiana did not score after halftime. Grantham's defense kept UAB in a game the offense could not finish.
Navy, Friday, 6 p.m. CT on ESPN
Navy opens American play in Birmingham as roughly a coin flip that leans the visitors' way. The model gives UAB a 45% chance at home. That is one of several near-even games on UAB's schedule, and it arrives with the series history working against the Blazers. Navy leads it 3-0, including 41-18 in Birmingham in 2024. Last September in Annapolis the two teams traded scores through a first half interrupted by weather delays and went to the locker room tied 24-24. Navy shut UAB out over the final two quarters and won 38-24. UAB has been even with this opponent before. It has never been even with them in the fourth quarter.
Two things decide whether that changes.
The first is what Navy's offense does to a run defense that has been trending the right way without actually stopping anyone on the ground. Louisiana ran 53 times for 225 yards, with quarterback Lunch Winfield taking 19 carries for 91 and two touchdowns. Navy's option asks a different question than Winfield did, not can you chase a scrambler, but can eleven players hold their assignment for four quarters. Muaaz Byard, who led UAB with 12 tackles at Louisiana, framed it exactly that way, saying of the option, "They're banking on somebody to mess up." Discipline beats aggression here, which is a strange instruction to hand a defense whose best trait this season has been aggression. Watch how UAB's linebackers play the dive on the first two Navy series. If the Blazers are chasing the pitch and giving up four yards inside, the possession math from Louisiana repeats itself and UAB's offense spends the night on the sideline.
The second is whether the passing game finally finishes drives. Burton completed 15 passes for 144 yards at Louisiana with an interception and no touchdown throw, and that is the sharpest argument yet against treating him as a settled starter rather than a quarterback with good nights in him. The targets have not helped. UAB's receptions at Louisiana were spread across seven players, EJ Reid led with five catches for 28 yards, Ty Mims had four for 57, and nobody cleared 57 yards. There is no volume receiver on this roster yet, which is a problem when the scouting report says throw it.
And this week the scouting report does say throw it. UAB ranks 10th of 14 American teams in passing offense at 159.3 yards per game with two touchdowns against three interceptions; Navy ranks 13th of 14 in pass defense at 296.5 yards allowed per game. Mortensen, who called the Louisiana offense "one of the poorer performances I've ever been involved with," has said he wants balance against Navy's run-heavy approach. Softer coverage is the most forgiving place Burton has been asked to prove he can throw a team into the end zone.
Underneath both is the offensive line. Keyon Cox started at tackle in the ULM win in Payton Kirkland's place, and that line blocked for 266 rushing yards; three weeks after Kirkland left the Illinois opener, Mortensen still has not given an update on his status, with several UAB players listed as day-to-day going into the short week. UAB has gone from 266 rushing yards to 74 across those two games. Friday, when it is third-and-1 and Rod Robinson is taking a handoff into a stacked front, that spot is where the game is actually decided.
What the night is worth
Beating Navy would move UAB's chances of reaching the American championship game to about 2.8%; losing drops them to roughly 0.5%. Neither number is a season. What a win would actually buy is the first evidence that the offense Mortensen built can operate in a game his defense keeps close, plus the first victory in a series UAB has never won. That is enough to want badly on a Friday night at Protective Stadium.
The full game view is at the interactive guide, and the forecasting method is explained at /methodology.