Midway through the third quarter Saturday, with Arkansas State trailing by a touchdown, Trey Owens broke a 34-yard keeper on third-and-1 to put the Red Wolves inside the 10. On fourth-and-goal from the 1, Owens rolled right, found nobody open and threw the ball incomplete to Tyler Little at the back of the end zone. TCU then drove 99 yards on 14 plays over eight minutes, Jaden Craig finishing it with a late-third-quarter touchdown pass to Ka'Morreun Pimpton, a drive that tied the longest in school history. That sequence turned a one-score game into the 31-7 win that closed non-conference play at 2-1.
That is the season in one possession. TCU has allowed 29 points in three games, which TCU 360 reports is the fewest through three games since 2014. Andy Avalos, who stayed on as defensive coordinator while TCU turned over the offensive staff, stopped Arkansas State on downs twice, including the third-quarter goal-line stand, and gave up 261 yards. When the Frogs have needed a stop this season, they have gotten one.
The offense is the part still being assembled. Gordon Sammis took over as offensive coordinator after coordinating UConn offenses that produced consecutive nine-win seasons and, in 2025, a 3,000-yard passer, a 1,000-yard receiver and a 1,000-yard rusher in the same year, the balance TCU has not had. The passing half arrived quickly. Craig threw for a career-high 391 yards and four touchdowns against Grambling, then went 21-of-29 for 337 yards, three touchdowns and one interception against Arkansas State, with Ed Small catching seven for a career-high 164 yards. The running half has not. TCU ran 39 times for 131 yards, 3.4 a carry with a long of 11, and Jeremy Payne needed 24 carries to get 86 yards and a touchdown. About 72 percent of TCU's 468 yards came through the air. TCU head coach Sonny Dykes said the offensive line "took a small step back."
The problem is not play-calling or personnel. Against Grambling, TCU's 285 rushing yards were spread across Payne, Craig, Jon Denman, Amante Martin, Landon Walker, Joe Pitchford and more, with four different backs scoring. Sammis is calling runs. The volume is there. What disappeared against a real front was the yards per snap, and UCF is a considerably realer front than Arkansas State.
One thing that has held is discipline. TCU committed 11 penalties for 89 yards in the season opener, a 15-10 loss to North Carolina. Saturday it was three penalties for 35 yards. A 3:30 p.m. ET road kickoff in a hostile building is exactly the setting that retests it.
TCU at UCF, Saturday's real game
Arkansas State came in averaging 38 points a game, TCU opened a 20.5-point favorite and covered the expectation comfortably. That cushion is gone. It is worth remembering how the only previous TCU-UCF game went. In 2024 at Amon G. Carter Stadium, TCU led 28-7 early in the third quarter and lost 35-34 when KJ Jefferson found Kobe Hudson with 36 seconds left, with Josh Hoover throwing for 402 yards in defeat.
UCF will try to shorten this game. Without injured starting quarterback Alonza Barnett III, Scott Frost called 40 runs to 17 passes against Georgia State and described the run-heavy plan as a deliberate scheme choice; Louisville transfer Duke Watson went for a career-high 177 yards and two touchdowns on 14 carries, including a 63-yard score. If the Knights keep the ball on the ground and TCU's offense keeps going three-and-out on early-down runs, the Frogs can lose a game they are favored in without Craig playing badly.
So the thing to want is not another 400-yard passing night. It is Payne getting four yards on first down, the interior line finishing a drive the way it finished the clock-killing fourth-quarter possession against Arkansas State, and Craig throwing on his terms instead of chasing points late. Jordan Dwyer helps here too. He missed Saturday with a nagging foot injury, but Dykes said afterward he expects Dwyer back for the conference opener, which would give Small a second real threat rather than leaving him and the tight ends to carry everything.
The model gives TCU about a 59 percent chance in Orlando. The stakes are large relative to where this season sits. Win and TCU's Big 12 title-game odds sit near 8 percent with playoff odds around 3.3 percent; lose and those fall to roughly 1.7 percent and 0.9 percent. Given that TCU's schedule saves its hardest stretch for last, at Arizona on a Friday night, home for Kansas State and Utah, then at Texas Tech on Thanksgiving night, the margin for error is thinnest at the end. Banking a road win now is how you get to keep the November games meaningful. Kickoff is 3:30 p.m. ET on FS1.
Sam Houston at Texas Tech: root for Texas Tech
The model gives Texas Tech a 99% chance to win.
Texas Tech is the last game on TCU's schedule, on Thanksgiving night in Lubbock. That makes the Red Raiders a strange team to pull for, but the model treats their strength as a résumé asset for TCU. Beat a Texas Tech that has kept its record clean and the win is worth far more in November. Tech should handle Sam Houston, a 98.8 percent chance, and the difference is small but real, about +1.3 percentage points of playoff odds for TCU. Tech winning leaves TCU's playoff number near 2.3 percent; a Sam Houston upset leaves it around 1.0 percent. Enjoy the upset if it happens, but it does not do TCU any favors. Kickoff is noon ET on TNT.
Full numbers are on the interactive guide, and the methodology explains how the projections are built.