LaNorris Sellers, with a 23-14 lead, threw interceptions on back-to-back possessions. South Carolina's first four second-half drives against Mississippi State were two three-and-outs and those two picks, and by the time the Gamecocks scored again the Bulldogs had run off 27 straight points. Sellers finished 25-of-40 for 282 yards and two touchdowns in a 41-34 home loss, a perfectly respectable line attached to the two throws that decided the game.
That is the frustrating part, and it is why this week is worth watching rather than dreading. Mississippi State allowed 34 points and 431 total yards. South Carolina was not overmatched. It stopped executing for a quarter and never got the lead back.
Alabama's defense is not what it was two weeks ago
The Gamecocks play at No. 8 Alabama on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, and the simulations give them a 22.5 percent chance. That is a real underdog number, not a hopeless one, and Alabama's defense arrives with a fresh crack in it. Florida State piled up 471 total yards on the Crimson Tide and converted 8 of 15 third downs. One bad night does not make a bad defense. It does mean Alabama's front and secondary can be moved on, and Kendal Briles' offense gets a real chance to show what it is.
Briles was hired as offensive coordinator after three TCU offenses that each averaged at least 30 points a game. Three games in, the offense has swung from a 405-yard rushing night against Towson to 149 yards on the ground and two backbreaking picks against Mississippi State. Sellers has already played this matchup. Last October in Columbia he threw for 222 yards and a touchdown and ran for 67 more, and South Carolina led 22-14 with ten minutes left before Germie Bernard caught a touchdown, converted the two-point try and then ran 25 yards for the winning score with 34 seconds on the clock. Alabama won 29-22.
So the thing to watch for is not whether Sellers can move the ball against this defense. He has. It is whether he and the offense can go a full third quarter without handing Alabama a short field.
Why the margin is so thin
The defense cannot cover for giveaways right now. Its lone takeaway against Mississippi State was a single interception. Beamer had already flagged this unit before conference play began, no takeaways against Towson, which he called unusual for this team, and communication breakdowns among linemen, linebackers and defensive backs that South Carolina "got away with" against an FCS opponent. It did not get away with them against an SEC one.
The injury sheet does not help. Dylan Stewart finally made his season debut after a back injury, played 14 snaps and left in the fourth quarter. Gabriel Brownlow-Dindy, Gerald Kilgore, Shawn Murphy and Jabree Coleman all failed to finish the game with testing pending; the one clear positive is offensive lineman Carter Miller, who missed Saturday and is expected back for Alabama. Pass protection in Bryant-Denny is exactly where you want your line whole.
There is also the closing pattern nobody in Columbia has forgotten. Beamer's teams went 25-3 when leading or tied after three quarters over his first four seasons. Saturday's collapse came earlier in the game, so it is not a clean repeat, but South Carolina again controlled a game and could not finish it.
What a win, or even a competitive loss, is worth
Beating Alabama would roughly double a faint playoff number, from about 5 percent if South Carolina loses to about 13 percent if it wins. Nobody should organize their week around that. The standings math is more immediate. South Carolina is 0-1 in the league with nine SEC games packed into ten weeks and a trip to Clemson at the end. Falling to 0-2 with Tennessee, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Arkansas and Georgia still stacked in the back half means the bowl math starts depending on games the Gamecocks are supposed to lose.
Which is why a giveaway-free 60 minutes matters even inside a defeat. This roster has already proven it can lead this opponent late. Saturday is about whether it can still be leading when the game ends.
Full breakdown at the interactive guide, with the model details at methodology.