Rutgers lost to USC 42-35 in Week 3.
Early in the third quarter Saturday, down 20-14 and near the goal line, Dylan Lonergan threw into the end zone and USC's Prophet Brown caught it and ran 99 yards the other way. That was the second Lonergan interception of the night; Christian Pierce's first-quarter pick at the Rutgers 40 had set up King Miller's 11-yard touchdown run two plays later. Fourteen USC points came off those two throws, and USC won 42-35 at SHI Stadium. Rutgers out-everythinged the box score otherwise. Rutgers had 460 yards to USC's 461, one sack allowed against that front, Antwan Raymond for 122 yards and a touchdown, KJ Duff for 86 yards and a touchdown. And Rutgers is 0-3 for the first time since 2008.
That is the whole season in one game. Greg Schiano put the number on it afterward. Ten turnovers in three games, more than Rutgers gave away in all of 2025. The giveaways have come from two different quarterbacks against three different opponents, which is why this is not simply a Lonergan problem or a bad-night problem. "We can't win when we turn the ball over," Schiano said. Lonergan called one of his two interceptions "a bad read on my part" and said he has to take better care of the ball.
Howard comes to Piscataway Friday at 7 p.m. ET on BTN, and the model gives Rutgers a 98% chance to win. That number is not the point. The point is that this is the least demanding stage Rutgers will stand on all year, FanDuel has the Scarlet Knights favored by 44.5, and a team that keeps handing the ball away should spend it playing a boring, careful, four-quarter game of football.
What actually deserves your attention
Watch Lonergan's decisions on throws inside the 20. He is the starter because he is healthy and because he was the preseason choice, not because AJ Surace lost anything; Schiano said he still has "complete confidence" in Surace, and Surace's own start earlier this season produced four interceptions of its own. So the quarterback question is not really who. It is whether either of them can play a full game without a gift. A 350-yard afternoon from Lonergan with zero interceptions is worth more to your peace of mind than a 500-yard afternoon with two.
Watch the defense take the ball away, too. Travis Johansen arrived this season as the new coordinator with 14 years of coordinator experience and six top-10 defenses behind him, hired specifically to fix the unit that sank 2025. Three games in, his only takeaways came in the middle game, against Boston College. There was nothing against UMass, then nothing at all against USC while allowing 461 yards, 102 rushing yards to Miller and a 52-yard touchdown catch. Rutgers is minus-seven in turnover margin. Half of that ledger belongs to the defense, and Howard is the opponent that should let Johansen's secondary catch a few.
Be honest about what a win proves. Howard is not going to tell you whether Rutgers can protect the ball against Michigan or Penn State. But an offense that keeps giving points away does not learn ball security by osmosis in November, and Rutgers does not have games to spare. Six wins in the last nine is the bowl math from here, and the eight Big Ten games after this one are all harder than this one.
So enjoy it as the rare Friday night where the scoreboard should take care of itself. Root for the ugly-boring version, Raymond carrying 20 times, Duff on a couple of easy ones, the ball never hitting the turf. If Rutgers finishes with a plus turnover margin and a comfortable number, that is the first thing all season that has gone the way it was supposed to.
Game-by-game numbers live in the interactive guide, and the methodology explains how the forecasts are built.