With about 2:57 left at Oklahoma, New Mexico went for it on fourth-and-2 and handed to Scottre Humphrey, who was stopped up the middle by Sooners defensive tackle David Stone. Jason Eck said afterward the play was an RPO built to hit Troy Omeire on a slant if the coverage allowed it. "They took it away, and they just kinda kicked our butt at the point of attack." That ended the Lobos' last real chance in a 14-6 loss, their first of the season. Two days later, asked who would start the Rio Grande Rivalry game at New Mexico State, Eck declined to say, telling reporters he wanted to "watch the tape back before making any declarations".
That non-answer is the story of the week. New Mexico's offense finished with 185 total yards, went 3-of-14 on third down and scored no touchdown, settling for two Grant Glasgow field goals. Toa Fa'avae was 4-of-10 for 79 yards. Neither quarterback threw a touchdown pass. Oklahoma's only scores were a 29-yard throw to Hayden Hansen and a 53-yard strike to Isaiah Sategna in the third quarter, the second after what Eck described as a bust. "We didn't get it spun the right way in coverage." Against a three-touchdown spread, the Lobos stayed within one score all afternoon. Eck's summary was simple. "You gotta close in the fourth quarter, and we didn't quite close."
The quarterback question is now three games old
Jack Layne started all 13 games last season, threw for 2,486 yards with 13 touchdowns and set the school's season completion-percentage record at 65.1 percent. Eck announced before the opener that Layne would undergo a second operation on the elbow that had kept him out of fall camp and would miss 2026 entirely. Everything since has been an audition.
The audition has not converged. Fa'avae opened the season as the starter while backup quarterback Moga completed 13 of 17 for 116 and the only passing touchdown; James Laubstein handled short yardage and ran for two scores. Against Mercyhurst the split stayed even, Fa'avae 3-of-9 for 91 yards and a touchdown, Moga 4-of-9 for 82 and two. Then at Oklahoma, per Pro Football Focus, Fa'avae played 42 snaps to Moga's 17, the first real lean of the season toward one passer. The lean produced no touchdown pass, and Eck still named nobody.
So watch two things in Las Cruces. Does Fa'avae take the first huddle and stay in it, and does either quarterback finally throw one into the end zone? Cade Keith gives them somewhere to go. The tight end led New Mexico with five catches for 78 yards at Oklahoma, including a 40-yard Fa'avae completion that reached the red zone, while Omeire, the UNLV transfer who was supposed to anchor this passing game, did not appear in the box score with a catch. Receiver Shawn Miller is still out with a preseason concussion, though tight end Tripp Walsh and receiver Massiah Mingo were considered possible returns for this game.
The rivalry, and what the Lobos are defending
A year ago New Mexico beat New Mexico State 38-20, trailing 17-14 at halftime before outscoring the Aggies 24-3 after the break. Layne went 23-of-30 for 303 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions. That is the game that put the Roaster in Albuquerque, and it is the game the Lobos travel to defend with the quarterback who won it unavailable.
The matchup itself is a clean collision. New Mexico's pass defense has allowed just five completions of 20-plus yards this season, a better rate than Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State or Penn State; New Mexico State has produced 14 such plays, tied for 22nd nationally. Oklahoma found the one crack in that coverage for 53 yards. Vegas has New Mexico favored by 11.5, and the model gives the Lobos a 76 percent chance to win.
New Mexico at New Mexico State, Saturday, 1:30 p.m. Mountain, CBSSN. A win leaves New Mexico's Mountain West title-game odds near 48 percent; a loss drops them to roughly 43 percent, and the already-thin playoff number falls from about 2.8 percent to 1 percent.
Hawai'i at Wyoming: root for Wyoming
The model gives Wyoming a 39% chance to win.
Wyoming hosts Hawai'i at 1 p.m. Mountain on The CW Network, and the Cowboys are the side New Mexico fans want. This one is straight conference standings math. Hawai'i is a Mountain West rival for the same two championship-game spots, and a loss in Laramie puts another mark in the league's loss column ahead of the Lobos. Wyoming wins about 39 percent of the time, so the result New Mexico wants is the underdog's. The payoff if it lands is modest, roughly 2.3 percentage points of title-game odds, 48.1 percent with a Wyoming win against 45.8 percent if Hawai'i takes it. Worth glancing at, not worth rearranging the afternoon.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the simulation details are at methodology.