New Mexico State carried a 17-14 lead into halftime in front of a sellout crowd at University Stadium last September, and then watched New Mexico outscore it 24-3 after the break. Jack Layne went 23-of-30 for 303 yards and four touchdowns, the Lobos piled up nine sacks, and the Aggies finished with 15 rushing yards on 30 carries in a 38-20 loss. New Mexico carried home the Roaster, the 30-pound iron chile roaster the two schools began playing for in 2025, and has kept it in Albuquerque ever since. Saturday at 1:30 p.m. MT on CBSSN, in the 116th meeting of a series New Mexico leads 75-35-5, the Aggies get it back or they don't.
That matters more than usual this fall because it is the only rivalry on the schedule. The Battle of I-10 is gone from the 2026 slate after UTEP left Conference USA, with no date set for its return, New Mexico State still holds those trophies after winning the last conference meeting 34-31 in 2025, and there is nobody to defend them against. All the annual emotional weight that normally gets split two ways lands on this one afternoon in Las Cruces.
The strength-on-strength part
Trey Hedden and TK King have made New Mexico State genuinely dangerous downfield. The Aggies have generated 14 explosive passing plays of 20-plus yards, tied for 22nd nationally, while New Mexico's pass defense has allowed just five such plays, a rate better than Georgia, Notre Dame, Ohio State and Penn State. Hedden is 56-of-97 for 781 yards with five touchdowns and three interceptions; King has 14 catches for 239 yards and two scores. Even Jason Eck, New Mexico's coach, volunteered that Hedden is accurate and willing to take shots down the field, and called him an upgrade on what the Lobos saw from New Mexico State's 2025 starter.
This is the whole season's offensive question compressed into one game. Hedden is the third new starting quarterback in three years, and David Yost's offense asks him to carry it. Last year that unit averaged 250.7 passing yards but just 77.3 rushing yards and 21.6 points per game while allowing 34 sacks. The pass-first identity did not change; the personnel did, with 49 newcomers including 33 transfers around Hedden and King, who is the top holdover skill piece. If the deep shots are there against the best coverage New Mexico State will see for a while, the offense is real. If Hedden forces them into a defense built to take them away, the interception column grows.
Finishing
Striking has never been the problem. Holding on has. At Hawai'i, the Aggies erased a 16-point deficit, tied the game on De'Marcus Peters' 84-yard fumble return, and entered the fourth quarter down three. Their first fourth-quarter drive died on an incomplete fourth-and-1 at their own 46. Hawai'i then burned 5:35 and scored on a fourth-and-4 touchdown pass from the Aggies' 7. Hedden's next possession ended in an interception with 3:58 left. That follows a 2025 season in which New Mexico State went 2-4 in one-score games, including two overtime losses and two losses where potential tying field goals were missed in the final minute.
So the thing to feel nervous about Saturday is not whether this team can hang around. It's the stretch between the 10-minute mark and the end.
What a win is worth
New Mexico is favored by 11.5, and the simulations give New Mexico State a 24% chance at home. The Lobos arrive at 2-1 off a 14-6 loss to Oklahoma, and New Mexico State is 1-2 after playing Florida State, Mercyhurst and Hawaii in its first three games.
Those numbers barely move a season that projects to three Conference USA wins. The Roaster does not care about the projection, and neither will Aggie Memorial on Saturday.
The full picture is at the interactive guide, and the methodology explains how the projections are built.