Braxton Woodson walked off early in the third quarter at Florida Atlantic with an ankle injury, and Jackson Gutierrez came on and threw a 64-yard touchdown to Jordan Collins, added an eight-yard scoring throw to Charles Robinson, and broke a 49-yard run. Gutierrez finished 6 of 12 for 100 yards and two touchdowns with no interception, plus seven carries for 75 net yards and a rushing score. Woodson, before he left, had run for 96 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries but completed 3 of 11 passes for 47 yards with an interception. Brian Newberry has since described Woodson's injury as a high ankle sprain, and a Navy beat reporter on the team's weekly call said he would be "very surprised" if Woodson played at UAB, pointing to Gutierrez as the likely starter.
So Friday is where the relief stint either becomes the plan or stays an emergency. Navy plays at UAB at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, and the model gives Navy a 55% chance to win.
What Gutierrez has to work with
The reason to think this holds up is the same reason Navy's whole offense was supposed to hold up. It comes down to the line. Navy returned four 2025 starters up front, Sean Crowley, Cam Nichols, Hoke Smith II and Malcolm Johnson, and Phil Steele ranked the group second in the American and 12th nationally entering the season. That is a veteran room to hand a first-time starter.
The problem at FAU was not raw yardage. Navy's seven rushing rows added to 246 net yards on 36 carries, but 171 of those came from the two quarterbacks, with Michael Barrow (39) and Vic Listorti (35) the only backs in double figures. And the drives died. Navy converted 3 of 11 third downs and held the ball 26:10 while FAU converted 8 of 14 and held it 33:50. Watch whether the running backs carry a real share Friday and whether Navy stays on the field. Gutierrez's arm is a bonus; sustained possessions are the job.
The part UAB is aiming at
UAB ranks 10th of 14 American teams in passing offense at 159.3 yards per game with two touchdowns against three interceptions, and has spent the short week saying it wants that fixed. It gets Navy's pass defense, which ranks 13th of 14 at 296.5 yards allowed per game. FAU threw touchdown passes of 76, 36, 30, 13 and five yards against Navy, which came away with no interception.
That is the live thread on the defensive side, and it lands on a staff Navy fans have been watching all year. Eric Lewis was promoted to defensive coordinator and Ricky Brown to co-defensive coordinator, with Jerrick Hall now associate head coach for defense, but Newberry said before the season that he, not Lewis, would call the defense. Lewis still has the safeties, Hall the line. The front has produced. At FAU, Aiden Lyczek had six tackles, two for loss and a sack, Griffen Willis 1.5 tackles for loss and a sack, and MarcAnthony Parker a third. Pressure is not the issue. Coverage behind it is, and a UAB team desperate to throw is exactly the opponent to find out whether the bye week fixed anything.
Why a routine-looking game isn't
Navy is 3-0 all-time against UAB, 31-6 in 2023, 41-18 in 2024, 38-24 last year in Annapolis, where the game was tied 24-24 at halftime through two weather delays before Navy's defense shut the Blazers out over the final two quarters. Three double-digit wins argue this is routine.
The rest of the picture argues otherwise. The Sporting News picked Navy to finish first in the American, and a media poll organized by At The Roost did too. Navy is on the second leg of a road-heavy league opening, Florida Atlantic on Sept. 12, UAB on Sept. 25, with Air Force next. A preseason favorite does not get to bank the easy ones when it hasn't won a league game yet.
The stakes are concrete. Winning at UAB puts Navy's chance of reaching the conference title game at about 15%. Losing leaves it around 3.5%. Those are the two branches, not a number that moves.
South Florida at Bowling Green: root for Bowling Green
This result carries a 2.1 percentage-point impact on Navy's conference-title-game probability. A Bowling Green win is a long shot, so treat it as a bonus rather than something to count on.
Saturday, 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+. Bowling Green wins this about 7% of the time, so it probably doesn't happen. South Florida is a conference rival in the title-game race, and a loss here would set its league standing back. Enjoy it if it happens; don't schedule your Saturday around it.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the methodology explains how the simulations work.