Ahmad Hardy stood on the Memorial Stadium sideline in street clothes while Jamal Roberts took the handoffs and ran for more than 120 yards, and Missouri beat Troy 27-17 to finish nonconference play 3-0. Ten months ago in Columbia, Hardy shredded this week's opponent for a career-best 300 yards and three touchdowns in a 49-27 win, with Toriano Pride Jr. and Marvin Burks Jr. each returning an interception for a score. Hardy will not be walking out of the tunnel in Starkville on Saturday.
The Tigers have beaten Mississippi State two years running, 39-20 in Starkville in 2024, decided partly by Daylan Carnell's 68-yard fumble-return touchdown, and the 49-27 Hardy game last November, and Eli Drinkwitz is 2-0 against Jeff Lebby by 19 and 22 points. Both of those wins leaned on Hardy's legs or a defensive touchdown, and Missouri cannot count on either one Saturday.
What the Troy game actually showed
Start with the backfield, because it defines the week. Drinkwitz said before the Troy game that he needs to see two weeks of full-speed practice before he will consider putting Hardy in a game, and Hardy has not cleared that bar. Backup Malae Fonoti is out for the season with a non-contact ACL tear suffered in Week 1. So the depth chart is Roberts and whoever is behind him, and Roberts has answered, he has started and rushed for 125 yards in Missouri's win at Kansas. That is the reassuring half. The unnerving half is that Missouri is now one more lower-body injury away from improvising in a league game on the road.
The passing game picked a bad week to have its first bad day. Austin Simmons went 10 of 19 for 91 yards with one touchdown and no interceptions against Troy after piling up 544 yards and seven touchdowns in his first two starts, and Missouri converted just 2 of 11 third downs. Drinkwitz did not blame the offensive line; he pointed at receivers, route depth and Simmons throwing early. Those are fixable in a week if the coaching staff is right about the diagnosis. If they are not, a road crowd will find out quickly.
The redeeming detail is what happened next, Missouri allowed no second-half points. Kamario Taylor threw four touchdown passes at South Carolina, so Missouri's secondary will be asked the same question again by a better quarterback. Edge rusher Darris Smith left the Troy game in the first quarter with a lower-body injury, was helped off by trainers, came back for one play in the third quarter and then did not play again. Langden Kitchen filling in for 1.5 sacks is real evidence the rush survives without him, but it is one game.
Penalties are the loose thread nobody has pulled tight. Missouri committed nine for 90 yards against Troy, after ten the week before at Kansas, Drinkwitz cited three facemasks and a false start by Naeshaun Montgomery, while starting center Dominick Giudice has drawn a penalty in each of the first three games. The field-goal protection problem got fixed in a week. The discipline problem did not.
Drinkwitz's own summary is the fair one. He said the offense "never had a rhythm, never had an answer, always playing behind." Take him at his word rather than at the record.
Missouri at Mississippi State
No. 19 Missouri visits No. 24 Mississippi State on Saturday at 6:45 p.m. CT on SEC Network. The model gives Missouri a 43% chance to win, which is about what a good-but-flawed team on the road against a ranked opponent should look like.
The stakes are the sort worth clearing the evening for. Win, and Missouri's playoff odds sit at 11.6% with its conference title-game chances at 6.1%. Lose, and those same numbers land at 4.9% and 1%. Those are the two branches of Saturday, not a starting point and an ending point, Missouri enters at 7.8% either way. A team projected for 4.1 conference wins does not get many of these swings.
One small thing to watch is Marquis Johnson, who caught 13 passes for 383 yards and three touchdowns at Missouri in 2023 and 25 more for 352 yards in 2024, is now a Bulldog and has seven catches for 136 yards and two scores this season. A secondary that just surrendered two deep balls draws a receiver who knows exactly how this program teaches coverage.
Illinois at Ohio State: root for Illinois
The rest of the slate is one game, and it is a long shot. Illinois has about a 5% chance at Ohio State (11 a.m. CT, FOX). An Illinois win would nudge Missouri's playoff odds up roughly 1.5 percentage points by knocking a Big Ten contender out of the unbeaten tier that Missouri is competing against for at-large bids, it does nothing to the SEC standings. Have it on in the background. Do not organize anything around it.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the methodology explains how the simulations work.