Miami beat Wake Forest 33-20 in Week 3.
CharMar Brown broke off a 32-yard run in the second quarter at Wake Forest and left the field on a cart. Josh Moore went down with an upper-body injury. Both are out for the season. Malachi Toney, who had already caught 10 passes for more than 100 yards in the first half, was reduced to third-down work after the break, and Miami's offense produced 75 yards the rest of the way, 303 in the first half, 75 in the second, while Mario Cristobal said Wake Forest "made it hard to push the ball downfield and so we checked it down."
That picture is the whole week. Toney finished with 12 catches for 114 yards and a touchdown at an average target depth of 4.8 yards, and PFF graded him Miami's best player at 87.5. Mark Fletcher Jr. carried 16 times for 85 yards and a score once Brown was gone. Shannon Dawson's offense in 2025 averaged 5.8 yards a play with Fletcher setting the CFP single-playoff rushing record and Toney winning freshman honors; in 2026 the same two names are still carrying nearly the whole offense, and one of them was on a snap count by the third quarter.
The game: Central Michigan at Miami, Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET, The CW Network
Miami wins this 98 percent of the time, and FanDuel opened the Hurricanes as a heavy favorite. What's worth watching is who gets the football once it stops being competitive.
Cristobal called Toney's and Fletcher's injuries "banged up stuff" that looks "favorable" for this game, which is the best-case answer and still not a reason to lean on either of them for four quarters. Snaps against a MAC defense are a step up from that, and there is no other step available. Clemson comes in Week 5 and Notre Dame in Week 10.
Central Michigan is the right opponent for this. Cristobal has said CMU runs its quarterback "in every way possible, with quarterback stretch, quarterback power, power read, quarterback counter," and that eye discipline matters because CMU "executes at a really high level." That is a real thing to defend, but it is a ground-bound thing, which is exactly what Miami's secondary needs. Three starting-level corners are unavailable. Bryce Fitzgerald held up at Wake Forest, allowing one catch on three targets across 67 snaps with a 78.8 PFF grade; JJ Dunnigan played a team-high 68 snaps and, by the Miami Herald's PFF-based analysis, allowed four catches on five targets for 90 yards and graded last among the 21 Miami defenders who played.
Defensively, CMU recorded no sacks and one tackle for loss against Wyoming. Darian Mensah opened Wake Forest with 24 straight completions, an ACC record to start a game, and is at 873 yards and 11 touchdowns with no interceptions. Whatever he does Saturday will not tell you much about Clemson.
Two more things worth holding onto. Miami committed no turnovers and took only seven penalties for 75 yards at Wake Forest, the first clean game of a season where discipline is a live question, and that baseline should survive a heavy rotation, not get thrown away with it. And Miami dropped from No. 5 to No. 6 in the AP poll despite winning, as Ole Miss jumped to No. 4. The ACC's media picked Miami as the overwhelming preseason favorite with 165 first-place votes. That is why a sloppy afternoon against a heavy underdog would sting more than the standings say it should.
Elsewhere
Two games move Miami's playoff math a little.
Wake Forest at Louisville: root for Wake Forest
The model gives Wake Forest a 19% chance to win.
Noon ET on ESPN. Wake Forest wins this about 19 percent of the time, so treat it as a fun long shot rather than something to build the afternoon around. Louisville is the ACC team most directly in Miami's way. A Louisville loss here is one more conference defeat between the Cardinals and the ACC championship game. Miami's playoff chances land at 78.7 percent in the branch where Wake Forest wins and 77.3 percent where Louisville wins, a gap of about 1.4 points.
Oklahoma State at West Virginia: root for West Virginia
The model gives West Virginia a 79% chance to win.
7 p.m. ET on FS1, and West Virginia is favored at 79 percent. This one is pure national bookkeeping. Fewer strong Big 12 résumés means less competition for at-large playoff spots. The branches split 77.9 percent for Miami if West Virginia wins against 76.3 percent if Oklahoma State does, worth about 1.6 points. Leave it on in the background.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the simulation details are on the methodology page.