Rodney Nelson fumbled at the Cincinnati goal line as the third quarter ended, Miami's own offense fell on it at the 1-yard line, and three plays later Kellan McLaughlin trotted out for a 19-yard field goal. Those were Miami's only second-half points in a 35-31 loss at Cincinnati on Sept. 19, a game the RedHawks led 28-7 at halftime. David McComb threw for a career-high 334 yards that night. Miami scored three points after the break.
That is the whole tension of this week in one possession. McComb, a redshirt freshman, went 17-of-28 for those 334 yards with a touchdown and an interception, and he was 9-of-12 for 179 yards and a score in the first half, the cleanest half of quarterback play Miami's rebuilt offense has produced. Maleek Huggins caught four balls for a career-high 128 yards and a touchdown, Damarion Witten added three for 84 and Lynel Billups-Williams two for 45, which is a replacement receiving corps hitting a Big 12 secondary for chunk plays. Then the same offense missed a 36-yard field goal, threw an interception, kicked from the 1 instead of punching it in, missed from 45 and rushed for 76 yards on the night. Chuck Martin's read was blunt. "I can't really think of a harder loss I've had than that," he said, adding, "We showed ourselves today what we could become. We have not become it. We could play 30 minutes of good football against a quality opponent."
Worth remembering how McComb got here at all. Thomas Gotkowski, Miami's starting quarterback, went down with a season-ending non-contact injury before the Pittsburgh opener. Everything Miami's passing game has become this month is a redshirt freshman learning on the job. The trend line is real. The fourth quarter is not there yet.
The defense told a split story too. Bill Brechin's unit held a Cincinnati offense averaging more than 336 rushing yards through two games to 137. That is the run-stopping standard that has put Miami in the MAC's top three defensively in each of Brechin's first four seasons as coordinator, with 133 sacks and 83 takeaways from 2022 through 2025. But it gave up 309 passing yards on 31-of-43 passing, as Cincinnati converted 6 of 14 third downs and 3 of 4 fourth downs. A defense built to take away the run is exactly the defense a team throws on when it needs 21 points in a hurry.
Saturday, 3:30 p.m., ESPN+
UConn comes to Yager Stadium on Homecoming, the centerpiece of Miami's Sept. 20-26 Homecoming Week in Oxford. Jason Candle is not a stranger walking in. He went 3-1 against Miami as Toledo's head coach from 2023 through 2025, including a 24-3 win last season, with his only loss the 23-14 MAC Championship Game in 2023. Previewing this one, Candle told his team that facing an experienced, well-coached program would require UConn to eliminate penalties and mental errors, and he pointed specifically at Miami's defense and its offensive playmakers under Martin's long-tenured staff. That is a generous scouting report for a 1-2 team, and Miami has earned about half of it. The playmakers are real. The finishing is not.
Oddsmakers side with Miami here. The RedHawks opened around a 3½-point home favorite despite their 1-2 record, while our simulation is less charitable, giving Miami a 33% chance to win. Take the disagreement as a sign this is a genuine coin-flip afternoon rather than the tune-up a Homecoming date implies.
What to actually watch is every trip inside the 10. Miami does not need another 334-yard passing day; it needs the third-and-goal and the extra point on the scoreboard instead of the field-goal unit jogging on. Scoop Smith, whose 98-yard opening kickoff return for a touchdown started the 21-point swing at Cincinnati and was Miami's first kickoff-return score since 2018, is listed active with no injury designation, so the free-points threat is still available. And McLaughlin, 1-of-3 last week with one attempt that hit his own offensive line, could use a clean afternoon.
The standings math is small. A win nudges Miami's chance of reaching the MAC Championship Game to about 12%; a loss leaves it near 9%. That gap is not why Saturday matters. MAC play opens Oct. 3 against Bowling Green, and Miami arrives at it with whatever habits this week builds. Grant Lyons, the fifth-year defensive end, said after Cincinnati that "we're going to be a good football team. I have no doubt about that." That is one player's belief, and this is the week it either gets evidence or doesn't.
One thing Saturday cannot give back. Cincinnati now leads the Victory Bell series 62-60-7 after the 129th meeting, and reporting out of last week indicates the rivalry will not continue next season; Yahoo Sports called it the final Victory Bell game between the programs "for the foreseeable future." Miami held its largest halftime lead in that series since 2005 and let it go, with no rematch on the books. The bell is gone.
Full numbers and matchup detail are in the interactive guide; the forecasting approach is explained in the methodology.