With 1:59 left in Springfield, Javae Gilmore got a hand on Skyler Locklear's fourth-and-goal pass from the 7, and Missouri State's 86-yard, 11-play drive died there. Marshall won 30-24, a nonconference road result that moved the Herd to 2-1 and avenged last year's one-point loss to the Bears. Before that deflection, Kenyatta Hardge II had blocked a 22-yard field goal try just before halftime to protect a 17-10 lead, and Eddie Pleasant III had intercepted Locklear at Marshall's 20 in the second quarter. Three defensive plays, three Missouri State scoring chances erased.
Now the uncomfortable part. Locklear still went 19 of 28 for 309 yards and two touchdowns, Isaiah Myers caught seven balls for 141 yards, and Marshall allowed 320 passing yards with no sacks on the day. Tony Gibson's own summary was blunt. "Defensively, we gave up way too much stuff, but we got tight when we needed to."
That is now a pattern, and it is the thing worth watching Saturday. Brad Lambert's first game coordinating this defense, at Penn State, produced 324 passing yards and four passing touchdowns allowed on just 20 completions, including seven Penn State catches of 20-plus yards. Against Middle Tennessee, the picture genuinely looked better, 243 passing yards on 47 attempts, longest completion 15 yards, an interception from Zah Jackson returned 54 yards to the Middle Tennessee 4 before a penalty advanced it to the 2, five pass breakups, and a stop on the two-point pass that would have tied it after Middle Tennessee's 75-yard drive ended in a 15-yard touchdown with 50 seconds left. Then Missouri State put the yardage right back. For reference, the 2025 defense Lambert inherited allowed 261.7 passing yards and 24 passing touchdowns while opponents scored 30.25 points a game. Three games in, the yardage hasn't moved. The closing has.
The passer Marshall sees Saturday
Marshall hosts Gardner-Webb at 3:30 p.m. ET Saturday at Joan C. Edwards Stadium on ESPN+, and the model gives the Herd a 98% chance to win. There is no scenario where this game is in doubt on talent. But Gardner-Webb's quarterback is Cole Pennington, who played at Marshall in 2024 before transferring, and who is the son of Chad Pennington, the quarterback of Marshall's 13-0 season in 1999 and the name on the building housing Marshall's Hall of Fame since it opened in 2014. It is Homecoming. If you wanted a strange afternoon, this is it.
Pennington is also exactly the kind of quarterback that has hurt Marshall. He entered the Liberty game ranked third in FCS at 345.0 passing yards per game and threw for 378 against Wofford. He will throw it 40 times if Gardner-Webb trails, which it probably will. So root for the ordinary stuff, such as a sack or two after zero last week, a contested throw broken up before the catch instead of after, and a stat line where Pennington's yards come in 9-yard pieces rather than 38-yard ones. Marshall has won the two previous meetings 55-0 in 2013 and 28-7 in 2022, both in Huntington. Marshall will win. The number to watch is Pennington's passing yards, because James Madison and its offense are next Saturday in Harrisonburg.
Two smaller things to keep an eye on
Carlos Del Rio-Wilson answered the question that mattered most out of Week 2. After missing the second half against Middle Tennessee with what was described as a shoulder/collarbone injury, he was reported available on Sept. 17, threw 25 passes and carried 16 times against Missouri State, with no in-game injury reported. Full workload, no scare. That does not prove the shoulder is behind him, and a 98% favorite is a reasonable place to keep his carries modest.
The recurring flaw showed up again in the offense's best game. Del Rio-Wilson fumbled in the red zone in the fourth quarter, Antonio Smith recovered, Marshall's only turnover. "Ball security is job security," Del Rio-Wilson said afterward. "I've got to do better." An offense built on returning starters can absorb that against Gardner-Webb. Tight end Toby Payne, receiver Adrian Norton and linemen Jalen Slappy and Tariq Montgomery all joined Del Rio-Wilson on the Preseason All-Sun Belt First Team; that group should not be giving the ball away in the red zone in October, which is when Gibson's second season actually gets judged.
James Madison at Old Dominion: root for Old Dominion
The only outside game worth your time kicks off at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN+. Old Dominion beating James Madison is the rare result that helps Marshall directly in the standings, because James Madison is the East team Marshall has to climb over, and the Herd visit Harrisonburg next week. With a James Madison loss here, Marshall's conference title game odds sit at 6.6%; with a James Madison win, 3.0%. That is a 3.6-percentage-point swing, the largest single outside result on the board, and Old Dominion is only a 10% shot at home. Enjoy it if it happens rather than planning on it.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the simulation details are in the methodology.