Early in the fourth quarter in Columbus, backup quarterback Ethan Thanthanavong lost control of a high snap under pressure, and 349-pound Ohio State freshman defensive tackle Jamir Perez scooped up the loose ball and returned it for a touchdown to make it 56-0. Kent State lost 59-3. The play came in garbage time with a reserve under center, in a game already decided, which is exactly the caveat it deserves, and it still lands in a week when the giveaways matter more than usual, because the team Kent State hosts Saturday has been on the winning end of the turnover exchange all month.
Go back a week. In the rain against Wofford, Kent State gave up 12 points on its own mistakes. A muffed punt by Wayne Harris set up a field goal, a botched punt snap turned into a safety, and Dru DeShields threw two interceptions. Mark Carney's own summary afterward was blunt. "It was execution again, nothing that our opponent did. It was all self-inflicted wounds." The Flashes won that one anyway, 36-15. Wofford could not do much with the gifts. Ball State has been keeping what it is given, which is why a coin-flip MAC game offers a much thinner margin.
Why Ball State is a bad matchup for a team giving away points
Both teams arrive 1-2. The records are identical and the ledgers are not. Kent State ranks 135th nationally in scoring offense at 13.0 points per game and 136th in scoring defense at 43.7 allowed, and sits at minus-three in turnover margin, 119th in the country. Ball State is plus-one, 51st, with slightly more per-game production on the ground and through the air.
There is a personal wrinkle here too. Carney's first game after Kent State removed his interim tag came at Ball State on November 5, 2025, and the Cardinals won it 17-13 on a fourth-quarter go-ahead touchdown pass. Same opponent, Kent State's field this time, and a chance to reverse the result that opened his tenure.
Kickoff is noon Eastern Saturday at Dix Stadium on ESPN+. The model has this at 51 percent for Kent State, a coin flip with the home team holding the coin.
What to watch
The quarterback picture. DeShields was 6-of-15 for 35 yards with an interception at Ohio State before Kent State ran four quarterbacks and five passers through the game. Ten days earlier against Wofford he was 16-of-25 for 248 yards with a touchdown and ran 10 times for 74 yards and two scores. This is the same quarterback who threw for 2,030 yards, 18 touchdowns and three interceptions with a 150.0 efficiency rating in 2025. Which version shows up, and whether he plays a full game, is the biggest single variable Saturday.
The defense in ordinary conditions. Kent State held Ohio State to 1-of-8 on third down, stopped two fourth-down tries, and got interceptions from freshman linebacker Tanner Mintz, whose pick set up the field goal that accounted for the only points, and from Norey Johnson, all while giving up 527 yards. But last year's defense allowed 427.4 yards and 33.6 points a game with opponents converting 44 percent of third downs, and that down-to-down leak, not the situational stuff, is what a MAC offense will test.
Don't read the 59-3 as a verdict on this team. Sixth-ranked Ohio State was coming off a one-point loss at Texas in which it blew a 20-point fourth-quarter lead, and it bounced back on a MAC visitor the way heavy favorites usually do. Carney had high praise for Ohio State's talent while allowing his team could have played better. Both things can be true. The informative game is this one, against an opponent Kent State can actually beat.
Kent State has the quarterback and the situational defense to win a game like this. Ball State is simply the worst available draw for a team in this condition, an opponent that has stayed on the right side of the turnover column and has moved the ball a little better on the ground and through the air. In a 51 percent game, that is the entire margin.
Full details are in the interactive guide, and the forecasting approach is explained in the methodology.