Colorado lost 41-7 at Northwestern, and the scoreboard was not a yardage story. It was a possession story. Fourteen of those Northwestern points came off Colorado's 0-for-3 day on fourth down.
That is the version of Colorado that opens Big 12 play at Baylor on Saturday at noon Eastern on ESPN2, and the Buffaloes are given about a 17% chance to win it.
Lewis threw two picks after 150 clean attempts
The number that matters for Lewis is not 19-of-29 for 168 yards. It is 5.8 yards per attempt, and two interceptions that ended a streak of 150 attempts without one. The first came on a throw over the middle after consecutive holding penalties had backed Colorado into first-and-30; the second went into double coverage in the fourth quarter. His only touchdown was a 50-yard catch-and-run screen to Joseph Williams, which is to say the passing game did not generate much on its own. Danny Scudero, the transfer receiver who caught 88 balls at San Jose State last year, missed the game with a foot injury and has no confirmed return timetable. Before Northwestern, Deion Sanders said, "I don't know if Danny's going to be healthy this week."
If Scudero plays in Waco, Lewis gets a target who can win outside without the throw having to be perfect. If he does not, watch how much of the first half Colorado spends asking Lewis to make tight-window throws behind schedule. That is where both interceptions came from.
The run game is the actual opening
Colorado ran 33 times for 180 yards at 5.5 a carry, with JaQuail Smith, not Welch, leading the rotation at 8 carries for 91 yards. That is three straight weeks of functional rushing from a front that was rebuilt in the offseason, and it is the one thing that survived a 34-point loss intact.
It also happens to be the thing Baylor invites. Pregame analysis pointed to a Baylor defense that ranks in the bottom half of the Big 12 in both total and rushing yards allowed, and the Bears are without safety Jacob Redding, who led them with three interceptions in 2025 and tore his ACL less than two hours before the opener. Baylor opened as an 8.5-point favorite, but Colorado's rushing offense ranks 49th nationally to Baylor's 75th. The margin is available on the ground. It disappears the moment Colorado hands the ball back.
Colorado played Northwestern two corners short, and it showed
Northwestern threw for five touchdowns against a Colorado secondary playing without cornerbacks Emory Floyd and Preston Ashley, with end Domata Peko Jr. also unavailable. Sanders did not hide behind that. He said Northwestern "did a better job coaching than we did," and asked how many times the Wildcats ran wheel routes on a defense that was calling it out on the headset. Whether those corners are back is the single most useful pregame check a Colorado fan can make this week.
The response Sanders asked for
Colorado allowed 41 points in one game after allowing 34 across its first two combined, and Sanders told the team to "flush it because the Big 12 is next week." Micah Welch, who scored the overtime touchdown that beat Baylor in the 2024 meeting, is still in this backfield. Almost nothing else from that night is.
Smith and Welch can grind out 5-plus a carry against a thin Baylor front, and Lewis can throw the ball away instead of into coverage on first-and-30. Do both and Colorado is still playing in the fourth quarter as a double-digit underdog. Win it and the Big 12 opener becomes evidence the Northwestern film was an outlier. The full week is at the interactive guide, and the forecasting details are on the methodology page.