Buffalo lost to Penn State 55-13 in Week 3.
Elijah Holmes never put on a uniform in State College. Jason Wright took the first snap instead, finished 10 of 25 for 60 yards with no touchdowns, and fumbled twice in his first career start as Penn State beat Buffalo 55-13. Caleb Bacon knocked one of those fumbles loose and Ikenna Ezeogu recovered it at the Buffalo 20. Penn State scored on the next drive, and in the third quarter Marcus Neal Jr. forced and recovered a Nino Hill fumble at the Buffalo 33 to set up another touchdown. Buffalo's first four drives produced four total yards. The Bulls are 1-2, and the most useful thing that happened Saturday had nothing to do with the scoreboard. It clarified why the quarterback keeps changing.
Holmes did not play the second half at FIU because of an apparent knee injury, per The Buffalo News, and he did not dress at Penn State with the same knee. That reframes the whole thing. When Wright took over the larger share of snaps at FIU, after Holmes had opened that game completing 9 passes for 61 yards, it looked like a coaching verdict on the starter. It wasn't. Buffalo's quarterback situation is a medical question, and RotoWire reports Holmes hopes to return against Robert Morris without a confirmed timeline.
That matters because the two options are not interchangeable. Holmes arrived from Wingate, where he threw for 3,040 yards and 24 touchdowns as the 2025 starter. Wright appeared in four games in 2025 in a reserve role. Wright's relief work at FIU was the better half of his résumé, 13 of 27 for 185 yards and two touchdowns with an interception, and Penn State was the worse. A redshirt freshman making his debut start against a team that's this talented is not a fair sample, and Lembo said as much. But the gap between proven production and two turnover-marked outings is the whole reason Holmes's knee is the story this week.
Buffalo hosts Robert Morris on Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with a 96% win probability. That number is not the point. The point is what Buffalo looks like while winning.
What to actually watch
Start with who warms up under center. If Holmes dresses and starts, Buffalo gets its first clean look at whether Tony Tokarz's offense was ever the problem, and Robert Morris is a reasonable place to look, because the Colonials' defense has given up more yardage every week as competition rose, giving up 97 to Wagner, 310 to West Virginia State, 523 to Akron. If Wright starts again, watch the ball security before the completion percentage.
Then watch Chance Morrow. He had 18 catches, 218 yards and five touchdowns through two games before Audavion Collins and Daryus Dixson held him to two catches for 31 yards on seven targets. Penn State's corners can do that to almost anyone; an FCS secondary should not. If Morrow is still invisible Saturday, the passing game's problem is bigger than one knee.
Buffalo did find something on the ground. James McNeil Jr. carried 20 times for 80 yards and scored from the 1 to cap a 12-play, 75-yard fourth-quarter drive, and Oliver Hautanen made field goals from 21 and 38. That was the functional part of an afternoon in which Buffalo gained 173 yards and converted one of 14 third downs.
The defense is the quieter worry. Penn State ran for 304 yards and gained 573, with seven plays of 20 or more yards by its own count and one Buffalo sack to show for it. Yes, Penn State is Penn State. But Lembo's own postgame reckoning, "I've got to do a better job of getting them prepared," plus "some trouble tackling their punt returner," which Zay Robinson turned into 109 yards on eight returns, is the tell that this was about execution as much as talent gap. A Robert Morris offense that just got outgained 523-194 at Akron should not produce chunk plays. If it does, that travels badly.
Why the margin matters more than the win
Penn State opened as roughly a 41.5-point favorite and the final landed near it, which means Buffalo learned nothing about itself in a close game. The Bulls still have exactly one late-game data point this season, the Week 1 escape from UAlbany. Saturday probably won't supply another.
What Saturday can supply is rhythm, because the runway ends here. Robert Morris is Buffalo's last non-conference game; MAC play opens at home against defending champion Western Michigan and then goes to Toledo. Those are the two hardest games on the schedule. A comfortable, clean win with Holmes throwing and Morrow catching would mean Buffalo's floor was a health problem all along. A grinding, turnover-flecked afternoon against an FCS team would mean something harder to fix, and Buffalo would find that out at the worst possible moment.
Full numbers are in the interactive guide, and the model is explained in the methodology.