Arkansas lost to Georgia 45-17 in Week 3.
Arkansas went into Georgia week without a settled quarterback and came out of it the same way. KJ Jackson took the first two series against Georgia, AJ Hill the next two, under a plan Ryan Silverfield set on Monday and left deliberately open past that. Jackson led six of Arkansas' 10 drives and went 20-of-27 for 212 yards and a touchdown; Hill led four and went 8-of-14 for 76 yards. Georgia won 45-17 in Fayetteville, and afterward Silverfield graded both men the same way. "Neither played great. Neither necessarily provided the spark that we needed."
That is the sentence Arkansas fans carry into Saturday. Silverfield has not committed to a plan for Tulsa. He said he does not "want to play the quarterback carousel game," then declined to rule out alternating again if it gives Arkansas the best option to win. Meanwhile the Week 4 depth chart still lists Jackson as the starter with Hill behind him, unchanged through three weeks. The paper says one thing and the head coach's own words say something less settled.
The blocking is the bigger problem
Whoever takes the first snap is working behind a line that produced 17 net rushing yards on 20 carries against Georgia, 0.9 per attempt, with 28 of those yards lost on sacks. Sutton Smith's six carries for 17 yards and a touchdown were the entire positive contribution; Jackson lost 11 on the ground and Hill lost five. Silverfield said both lines of scrimmage "have got to improve." Sports Illustrated's beat writer saw "no push at the line of scrimmage" and put Arkansas 135th of 138 FBS teams in rushing through three games.
The passing game is the confusing part, because it worked and produced nothing. Arkansas threw for 283 yards on 29-of-42, Chris Marshall caught seven balls for 104 yards, and the offense still scored three points before the fourth quarter. Silverfield counted six drops; the Democrat-Gazette notebook added three batted passes, three mishandled snaps between the two quarterbacks and roughly 20 never-before-used plays tailored to each of them. Tim Cramsey's offense is moving the ball between the 20s. It is not finishing drives, and the two-quarterback setup added its own mechanical failures.
Some of that was self-inflicted early. Arkansas' opening drive reached the Georgia 38 and died when Khalil Barnes broke up a fourth-and-5 throw. Two end-zone pass-interference calls set up Georgia's second touchdown, Gunner Stockton's 62-yard third-down run set up the third, and Raylen Wilson's strip-sack of Jackson gave Georgia the ball at the Arkansas 32 for a 31-3 lead. The game was gone by the third quarter.
What to watch on defense
Ron Roberts' group had its most disruptive day of the year, three sacks, six tackles for loss, and still got run through. Silverfield's diagnosis was specific. Stockton "absolutely crushed us" on pin-and-pull runs to the boundary with a backside guard pulling. "We've got to be able to set the edge on that, and then we got to be able to show up and fill from the safety position," he said, adding that the linebacker has to flow over the top. Tulsa will have that tape. Watch Arkansas' edge defenders and safeties on the first boundary run the Golden Hurricane pull a guard for; if the edge holds and the safety fills, the week of practice paid off.
Saturday, 7 p.m., SEC Network+
Arkansas hosts Tulsa on Sept. 26 at 7 p.m. on SEC Network+, and the model gives the Razorbacks an 82% chance to win. That number is built on talent, not on anything Arkansas has shown for three weeks. Tulsa arrives ranked seventh nationally in scoring defense at 9.0 points allowed per game, leading the FBS in red-zone efficiency with a plus-4 turnover margin, against an Arkansas offense sitting 122nd in scoring at 19.3 points and minus-3 in turnovers. Arkansas is 0-3 against the spread. The market likes the Hogs by more than a touchdown; the efficiency numbers do not.
Arkansas has won this series 56 times against 14 losses and three ties over 73 meetings, so nobody in Fayetteville will accept history as comfort. The more useful framing came from the two coaches. Tulsa's Tre Lamb said, "All the pressure really goes on them. We can go in this stadium and cut it loose, and there's not much pressure on us." Silverfield said, "I wouldn't even call it pressure. It's just the opportunity to go out there and compete." SI's Arkansas beat put it plainly, Utah and Georgia outscored the Razorbacks 88-27, and those losses came with a ranked-opponent alibi attached; this one would not.
And the week carries weight from outside the building. On Sept. 18, the day before the Georgia game, the University of Arkansas Board of Trustees unanimously passed a resolution calling for a review of Razorback Athletics' competitiveness, focused on improving football resources, following the loss at Utah and criticism of athletic director Hunter Yurachek. The trustees acted before Georgia kicked off, so the blowout did not prompt it and nothing in the resolution touches the coaching staff. But it is the backdrop. A home loss to a Group of Five visitor would land in a building where the institution has already said out loud that it is unhappy.
So the things to want Saturday are small and concrete. A quarterback who takes the majority of snaps and keeps them. A running back who gets four yards before contact. A drive inside the 20 that ends in seven against the best red-zone defense in the country. Those would be the first real signs that the offense Silverfield imported can function, and Tulsa is the last opponent before Texas A&M, Tennessee and Vanderbilt make the question academic.
Full game-by-game detail is in the interactive guide, and the forecasting approach is explained in the methodology.