Oregon State threw for 417 yards and ran for just 55 against Texas Tech on Saturday. The Red Raiders won 35-24, but the Beavers’ passing production showed how much offense remained available after Tech shut down the run.
That split matters for Shiel Wood’s defense. His 2025 unit led the country in takeaways and rushing defense, with 32 takeaways and only 68.1 rushing yards allowed per game. Tech is defending its first Big 12 championship after losing six defensive players among a program-record nine NFL draft picks. Keeping opponents from running is an encouraging part of that rebuild; Oregon State showed why it cannot be the whole job.
Houston visits Friday, September 18, at 7 p.m. Central on FOX for the conference opener. Fan Watch gives Tech a 90.5% chance to win. The stakes still warrant your Friday night. Tech’s modeled playoff chances are 56% with a victory versus 32% with a loss, while its chances of reaching the Big 12 championship game are 73.5% versus 39%. The interactive guide has the full projections and methodology.
Houston arrives averaging 308 rushing yards per game; Tech allows 65 and has held seven straight opponents below 100. Root for Wood’s front to keep that streak going, but watch what happens when Houston throws. Against the same Oregon State defense, Amare Thomas caught eight passes for 133 yards and a touchdown, while Overmyer added six catches for 84 yards. Those receiving contributions give Tech something to account for even if it contains the ground game.
Colorado at Northwestern: root for Colorado
Saturday, September 19, 6:30 p.m. Central, FOX. Colorado has a 22% chance to win, so this is a worthwhile upset to cheer for without building the weekend around it. A Buffaloes win gives Tech a 1.8-percentage-point playoff benefit. Tech’s playoff chances are 55.1% if Colorado wins versus 53.3% if Northwestern wins.
The connection is Tech’s Week 5 trip to Colorado. A stronger future opponent helps Tech’s potential résumé; this nonconference game does not directly change the Big 12 standings.
Give the defense more help
Will Hammond’s 32-yard touchdown to Coy Eakin with 6:31 remaining put Tech ahead at Oregon State. That was the late response fans wanted from their quarterback. But Hammond also took four sacks and lost a fumble; Joey McGuire blamed two sacks on his failure to throw the ball away and criticized the decision preceding the fumble. Against Houston, throwing away a doomed play would be a welcome contribution alongside the difficult completions.
J’Koby Williams supplied another way forward, rushing for 116 yards as Tech recovered from a six-yard first quarter on the ground to finish with 155. Getting that running game involved earlier would ease the burden on Hammond. At tight end, true freshman Matt Ludwig replaced the injured Terrance Carter alongside Jett Carpenter at Oregon State and caught three passes for 30 yards and a touchdown. Carter’s availability against Houston remains unconfirmed, but Ludwig’s three catches give Tech reason to trust him if Carter cannot play.
Will Karoll also gave the defense room to work. Four of his seven punts finished inside the 20, none was returned, and every ensuing Oregon State possession started inside its own 30. That is valuable support as conference play begins, particularly when the offense stalls.
Tech has won nine consecutive home games while allowing no more than 18 points in any of them. Friday’s standard should be to keep Houston from finding an easy alternative when the run disappears. Make its receivers work for completions, too.