Thomas Shrader moved from guard to center, and Julius Tate entered at guard against Army. Brian Hartline said he wanted South Florida's five best linemen on the field. Army never sacked Michael Van Buren Jr., and the Bulls won 28-24. The adjustment deserves another look Saturday, even if one game cannot establish that USF has settled its line.
Delaware State visits Saturday, September 19, at 7 p.m. Eastern on ESPN+. Fan Watch gives USF a 99.5% chance to win. Expect a victory. Within it, watch whether the blockers give Van Buren time to keep completing passes and finishing possessions with touchdowns.
Delaware State has 11 sacks through three games. Watch who lines up at center and guard, whether the group handles pressure together and whether USF avoids losing yards on passing downs.
Hartline is in his first season as a head coach, with Tim Beck coordinating the offense and Josh Aldridge leading the defense. Those new coaches have to establish dependable ways to win. Beck has emphasized physicality, ball security and varying the tempo by opponent, replacing USF's breakneck pace of 2025. Fans should look for the blocking and decisions that make those priorities work across several possessions.
Van Buren's opener against FIU produced 100 passing yards, no touchdown passes and no interceptions; USF gained only 208 yards and had no play longer than 14 yards. At Army, he threw for 239 yards and two touchdowns without an interception and ran for two more scores. USF also produced nine gains of at least 15 yards. The offense supplied considerably more reason for confidence while preserving its quarterback's interception-free start.
Hartline backed that offense on fourth-and-6 at Army's 38, passing up a potential 55-yard field goal because he disliked the distance and trusted his players. Van Buren recognized cover zero and completed the winning touchdown pass to Joshua Porter against the blitz, rewarding Hartline's trust. Saturday, root for enough productive early downs that he can save that kind of decision for a less desperate moment.
The defense has more to correct. USF recorded six tackles for loss at Army, including Zavier Hamilton's late sack, but surrendered 219 rushing yards and touchdown drives of 90, 92 and 90 yards. A stop after a negative play would be more reassuring than another busy tackle total.
Grayson “Pup” Howard missed Army after being injured early against FIU. Rodney Hill, Sam Robinson and Michael Harris started at linebacker; Robinson made eight tackles, Hill six and Harris four, including one for loss. Whoever plays needs to stop runs before another long possession develops.
Delaware State has nine rushing touchdowns and one passing touchdown through three games. Quarterback Ui Ale has added 119 rushing yards and two rushing scores. USF needs to account for the quarterback as well as the backs and make the Hornets face passing downs.
Outside Tampa, Texas State offers the largest potential benefit. USF enters with a 64.8% chance to reach the American title game and a 15% playoff chance. The interactive guide has the full comparisons; the methodology explains the model.
North Texas at Texas State: root for Texas State
Saturday, noon Eastern · USA Network
Texas State has a 28% chance to win, with a 4.8 percentage-point benefit to USF's conference-title-game odds. The alternative outcomes put the Bulls at 68.2% with a Texas State victory, versus 63.5% with a North Texas victory.
The model treats a North Texas loss as evidence of vulnerability in an American competitor. This nonconference result adds no league loss to North Texas's record. Give the Bobcats the closer watch at noon. Their upset is unlikely, but it offers the biggest outside reward.
Tulane at Kansas State: root for Kansas State
Saturday, noon Eastern · ESPN2
Kansas State has a 79% chance to win. USF's title-game chances are 65.2% with a Kansas State win, versus 63.3% with a Tulane win, a 1.9 percentage-point benefit.
Tulane visits USF in Week 13. A loss here would signal a more vulnerable future opponent in the model; this is a nonconference game. Pull for the favored Wildcats while keeping Texas State's upset bid nearby.
UTSA at Texas: root for Texas
Saturday, 8 p.m. Eastern · SECN+
Texas has a 93% chance to win, worth a 2.4 percentage-point benefit to USF's title-game odds. Those odds are 64.9% if Texas wins, compared with 62.5% if UTSA wins.
The benefit again comes from the model's assessment of an American opponent's vulnerability. USF visits UTSA in Week 6, making the Roadrunners worth observing, but this nonconference result does not change their league record. A score check during the Bulls' game should do; Texas winning is the expected, helpful outcome.
James Madison at San Diego State: root for San Diego State
Saturday, 10 p.m. Eastern · The CW Network
San Diego State has a 23% chance to win. An upset carries a 1.9 percentage-point playoff benefit for USF. That means 16.5% with an Aztecs victory, versus 14.6% with a James Madison victory.
A James Madison loss helps through national playoff competition. This is a modest late-night bonus to cheer if the Aztecs keep it close, with considerably less riding on it than USF's own performance.