Wake Forest's Hernandez reached the line to gain on fourth-and-15, with replay confirming the conversion. Barry Odom said Purdue wanted pressure to force an underneath throw, then defenders to rally and tackle short of the marker. Purdue couldn't finish that stop and lost 38-36 in double overtime. The defense had a plan for the decisive down; the tackle still had to happen.
Purdue visits UCLA on Saturday, September 19, at 11 p.m. Eastern / 8 p.m. Pacific on BTN. Fan Watch gives the Boilers a 21% chance to win. That's a substantial underdog worth staying awake for. A victory would end Purdue's 18-game Big Ten losing streak. The outside slate offers little help this week. The interactive guide has the forecast, with the model explained in the methodology.
The defensive work needs to begin well before a desperate fourth down. In his postgame assessment, Odom identified insufficient early pressure and loose coverage before Kevin Kane changed personnel and formations. Purdue's two sacks came in the fourth quarter or second overtime. Indiana State had already exposed the coverage in the opener with completions of 41, 45 and 55 yards. Those problems now span two opponents, giving fans reason to watch whether pressure and coverage arrive together from the opening possessions.
UCLA brings a different way to punish an unfinished tackle. In its first two games, the Bruins exceeded 200 rushing yards each time, and Wayne Knight scored three rushing touchdowns in each. Nico Iamaleava added 57 rushing yards against San Diego State alongside 151 passing yards. Purdue needs to contain the quarterback as well as the back. Getting Knight into a difficult down will accomplish little if Iamaleava can run for the conversion; chasing the quarterback cannot mean leaving receivers unattended.
There is an offense worth getting the ball back to. Against Wake Forest, Ryan Browne completed 32 of 42 passes for 329 yards without an interception, while Fame Ijeboi ran for 114 yards and three touchdowns. Purdue gained 455 yards without committing a turnover against its first FBS opponent of the season. That makes the offensive encouragement more substantial, even as a winnable home game slipped away.
Odom and offensive coordinator Josh Henson are both in their second seasons at Purdue. That continuity gives fans reason to ask for more dependable scoring from possessions that reach the goal line. Three regulation drives against Wake Forest reached at least the 12-yard line and ended in field goals. At UCLA, watch whether Henson and Browne can keep the offense productive through those final yards, giving the defense touchdowns to protect.
Purdue also needs to cut out costly penalties on offense and defense. Against Wake Forest, Xavier Townsend's personal foul erased a 13-yard completion, while Don Saunders's personal foul added 15 yards to Drayden Dickmann's 44-yard run. Purdue has now hurt itself with costly flags in both games. Keeping earned yards and refusing to donate extra ones would give this upset bid more room.
If UCLA faces a long conversion with the game still available, make the underneath catch end underneath the marker.