Braylan Lovelace, Rasheem Biles and Kyle Louis each returned a first-half interception for a touchdown when Syracuse last visited Pittsburgh in 2024. Lovelace remains; Biles and Louis, Pitt's two leading tacklers last season, are gone. On Saturday, Lovelace supplied a safety and DeMarco Ward and Jeremiah Marcelin shared the fourth-down sack that ended UCF's final possession, securing Pitt's 12-7 win. The new linebackers are giving Pitt something to cheer beyond the old highlights.
Syracuse visits Thursday, September 17, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN. Pitt has a 93.3% chance to win in the Fan Watch model. That's a game Pitt should expect to win, with a substantial cost if it gets away. Pitt's ACC title-game chances are 17.1% with a win versus 4.9% with a loss. The interactive guide has the full outcome comparisons and methodology.
Cory Sanders took over as defensive coordinator after eight seasons on Pitt's staff, with plans to preserve its aggressive pressure and press coverage. His challenge is to keep attacking with the replacement linebackers, and their UCF production gives him reason to do it. Alex Sanford added a nine-yard sack while starting alongside Lovelace and Marcelin, with Ward contributing in rotation.
Pat Narduzzi singled out the final defensive response as an important demonstration of handling adversity. Pitt earned that assessment in a nonconference game; Thursday begins the ACC work. Winning a tense finish is encouraging, but sustained contention will require more than one late stand.
The offense can help by making the defense protect a larger margin. Mason Heintschel followed his seven-touchdown opener with 18 completions in 29 attempts for 212 yards against UCF, without a touchdown or interception. He said nearly every snap left him holding a soaking-wet ball. A steady downpour after a 65-minute weather delay makes the passing slowdown easier to understand; it also leaves Thursday as another opportunity to pair ball security with scoring drives.
Pitt started the same five offensive linemen in both games and allowed one recorded sack in each. Keeping that combination available would give Heintschel continuity as the offense seeks more consistent production. In the backfield, true freshman Damon Ferguson Jr. made his first start against UCF after Ja'Kyrian Turner was held out with an undisclosed injury. Ferguson carried 20 times for 59 yards and scored on a 13-yard run. Ferguson gave Pitt a touchdown in his first start; Turner's availability and Thursday's division of carries remain uncertain.
Pitt has won 11 straight home meetings with Syracuse, and its current defense has allowed just 47 rushing yards through two games. Root for the front to keep Syracuse from finding easy yards on the ground and make its passing downs difficult. But the corners have their own responsibility. Narduzzi identified downfield throws to Umari Hatcher and Justus Ross-Simmons, particularly contested catches, as a key challenge. Pitt's pressure can force hurried decisions; its cornerbacks still need to finish those plays when the ball arrives.
SMU at Louisville: root for Louisville
Saturday, September 19, at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
This is the outside game worth the most attention. Louisville has a 52% chance to win, and the preferred result gives Pitt a 4.5-percentage-point advantage in ACC title-game probability. That probability is 18.4% if Louisville wins versus 13.9% if SMU wins.
The help comes from handing SMU a conference loss. Louisville is also on Pitt's November schedule, but this week's benefit is the direct ACC result. Pick the Cardinals in a game the model sees as nearly even; there's enough at stake for Pitt to make a close fourth quarter worth watching.
Miami at Wake Forest: root for Wake Forest
The model gives Wake Forest a 13% chance to win.
Friday, September 18, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Wake Forest has just a 13.5% chance to win. Enjoy the possibility without building the weekend around it. Pitt's playoff chances are 8.0% with a Wake victory versus 6.0% with a Miami victory, a 1.9-percentage-point difference calculated before rounding.
A Miami conference loss would help Pitt in the ACC race, with that benefit also reflected in the playoff projection. Pitt still visits Miami in Week 8, so Wake cannot do that work for the Panthers. It can give them a welcome head start by putting a loss on Miami's conference record.