Texas completed fourth-down passes in its own territory on the first two of its three closing touchdown drives against Ohio State. Those possessions covered 91, 72 and 73 yards. The Buckeyes entered the fourth quarter ahead 23-3 and left Austin with a 24-23 loss. Twice, one stop on fourth down could have ended a touchdown possession. Ohio State never got it.
Kent State visits Saturday, September 19, at noon ET on FOX, with Ohio State given a 99.8% chance to win. Expect a comfortable victory. With Illinois coming September 26 to begin Big Ten play, watch whether the Buckeyes finish defensive possessions and keep their own offense moving long enough to give that victory substance.
Matt Patricia remains defensive coordinator, but Ohio State entered the season with only three returning defensive starters from a unit that allowed a nation-leading 9.3 points per game in 2025. Keeping the coach offers continuity; replacing most of his starters still requires players to execute together. Saturday can supply more successful repetitions without settling how this defense will fare against stronger opponents.
At Texas, Kenyatta Jackson Jr. and Riley Pettijohn supplied sacks, and Jaylen McClain intercepted a pass. Texas nevertheless converted nine of 16 third downs and two of three fourth downs. Against Kent State, the Buckeyes need to follow their pressure with tackles and incompletions that send the offense off the field.
Jay Timmons provided an encouraging exception to the uncertainty around newcomers. The freshman started in the defensive backfield at Texas, made six tackles, including one for loss, and forced and recovered a fumble. Legend Bey had one carry for no gain; Chris Henry Jr. appeared without a catch or rushing attempt. Timmons gave fans substantial work to build on. If Bey and Henry get more offensive opportunities against Kent State, watch whether they can contribute across several possessions before assuming similarly established roles.
The offense has a different starting point. Arthur Smith arrived as offensive coordinator for 2026, inheriting a group that listed eight returning starters, including Julian Sayin, Bo Jackson and Jeremiah Smith. Fans can reasonably ask that experience to produce dependable rushing support alongside the passing game.
Against Ball State, Ryan Day credited Arthur Smith and Tyler Bowen with adjusting the rushing schemes at halftime after identifying movement in the defensive front. Bo Jackson subsequently scored from 65 yards and Ja'Kobi Jackson from 49. At Texas, Ohio State gained 94 rushing yards on 31 attempts, with no run longer than 11 yards. The earlier adjustment supplied encouragement, but the Texas performance left reliable rushing against stronger opposition unproven.
Jeremiah Smith caught eight passes for 164 yards and a touchdown at Texas. Yet Sayin completed five of 16 passes after halftime with an interception, and Ohio State scored only one second-half field goal. Against Kent State, root for productive handoffs that leave manageable passing downs, then completions that keep the next drive alive.
After losing to Virginia Tech in 2014, Ohio State beat Kent State 66-0 as J.T. Barrett threw six touchdown passes. Enjoy another emphatic response if it comes. The shared opponent cannot promise the same season ahead.
Elsewhere, Michigan State offers the biggest potential favor and the longest odds. Liberty is mostly a score check; USC and Tulane offer smaller playoff benefits. The interactive guide has the full comparisons, with the model explained in the methodology.
Michigan State at Notre Dame: root for Michigan State
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET · NBC
Michigan State has a 3% chance to win, but an upset is worth 4.9 percentage points in Ohio State's first-round-bye odds. Those odds are 33.2% with a Michigan State win, compared with 28.3% with a Notre Dame win. A loss for the Irish helps Ohio State in national competition for the top seeds. Check in if the Spartans keep it close; this would be a terrific bonus, not something the Buckeyes should need to salvage Saturday.
Ball State at Liberty: root for Liberty
Saturday, 4 p.m. ET · ESPN+
Liberty has a 98% chance to win, with a 3.6-percentage-point benefit to Ohio State's first-round-bye odds compared with a Ball State victory. The alternatives are 28.5% with Liberty winning and 24.9% with Ball State winning. Fan Watch assigns the benefit through national top-seed competition. The expected result leaves Ohio State near its entering-week bye outlook; the rare upset is the unfavorable possibility. A quick score check should cover this one.
USC at Rutgers: root for USC
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET · CBS
USC has an 89% chance to win. A Trojans victory puts a Big Ten loss on Rutgers and supplies a 1.6-percentage-point playoff benefit for Ohio State in the model. The Buckeyes' playoff chances are 75% with a USC win, versus 73.3% with a Rutgers win. Pull for the favored Trojans to deliver that modest conference help.
Tulane at Kansas State: root for Tulane
Saturday, noon ET · ESPN2
Tulane has a 21% chance to win, making this the more plausible of the two helpful outside upsets. A Kansas State loss helps through national playoff competition. Ohio State's playoff chances are 76% with a Tulane win, versus 74.5% with a Kansas State win, a 1.5-percentage-point benefit. Keep the score nearby while watching the Buckeyes; a close finish would merit the second screen.