Antonio Williams threw a 75-yard touchdown to T.J. Moore on Clemson's opening offensive play against North Carolina last year. Clemson led 28-3 after one quarter and won 38-10. Last Saturday, UNC supplied the disruption. Greg Smith intercepted a pass on East Tennessee State's opening possession, and the Tar Heels scored three plays later. Peyton Seelmann forced a fumble after halftime, Smith recovered, and UNC scored four plays later in a 35-3 win.
Now Xavier Lewis and Jaylen Harvey get a chance to hurry a different Clemson quarterback. True freshman Tait Reynolds is scheduled to make his first career start against UNC. Saturday's trip to Clemson kicks off at noon Eastern on ESPN, September 19. Fan Watch gives Carolina a 20% chance to win. There is no outside result important enough to recommend this week; the interactive guide and methodology have the full outlook.
Clemson has given UNC something specific to attack. The Tigers converted one of 13 third downs in their loss at LSU, then two of 14 in a 22-7 win over Georgia Southern. In that victory, they allowed 11 tackles for loss and scored one touchdown in five red-zone trips. Make Reynolds face long-yardage downs, and Carolina can force him to sustain possessions through the very situations Clemson has struggled to handle.
Lewis has four sacks through two games. Against ETSU, he and Harvey had two apiece, with Harvey filling the outside-linebacker/edge role while Melkart Abou Jaoude was unavailable. UNC's reworked front seven also helped hold TCU scoreless for the final 49 minutes of Carolina's opener.
Abou Jaoude missed the ETSU game wearing a cast on his right forearm/hand; Bill Belichick described him afterward as day-to-day without a return date. His availability for Clemson remains unresolved. Harvey's production gives fans a reason to look for edge pressure without assuming Abou Jaoude will return.
The other half of the upset requires Billy Edwards Jr. to turn UNC's defensive stops into touchdown drives. Bobby Petrino replaced Freddie Kitchens as offensive coordinator this year, while Steve Belichick stayed in charge of the defense. Carolina is learning its second offense in two seasons and still needs to finish drives consistently. In Petrino's debut against TCU, UNC gained 322 yards but scored only one touchdown, lost two fumbles and allowed three sacks.
Against ETSU, UNC committed no turnovers, scored touchdowns on all three red-zone trips and completed touchdown drives of 99 and 92 yards. Edwards went 15-of-20 for 244 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, his second interception-free start. Belichick credited his field vision and productive checks. If Edwards can keep getting Carolina into productive plays, a defensive stop need not leave the defense doing all the work.
ETSU's FCS status limits how much that offensive afternoon tells us about Clemson. Belichick credited the players' opponent study and preparation for handling ETSU's looks, while calling the performance imperfect. The next step is specific. Recognize what Clemson shows, avoid giving possessions away and finish drives with touchdowns.
UNC has lost five straight visits to Clemson since its 38-3 win there in 2001. Pressure that forces Reynolds into difficult downs, followed by an offense that cashes in, offers a route to finally ending that wait.