Roman Gagliano found AJ Jones for 15 yards on fourth-and-10, then hit Jones for a 15-yard touchdown with 50 seconds left at Marshall. The tying two-point pass fell incomplete, and Middle Tennessee lost 28-26. Gagliano had delivered the late touchdown; the Blue Raiders still needed one more play.
Nevada visits Saturday, Sept. 19, at 6 p.m. Central on ESPN+. Fan Watch gives Middle Tennessee a 38% chance to win. It would be a home upset worth getting behind. There is little reason to scoreboard-watch elsewhere this week. The interactive guide has the forecast; the methodology explains the model.
These teams have already supplied one happy ending for Blue Raider fans. In 2025, Middle Tennessee erased a 13-0 fourth-quarter deficit at Nevada and won 14-13. Nicholas Vattiato's five-yard touchdown run with 21 seconds left and Jacob Hathaway's extra point completed the escape. This Saturday, fans can reasonably ask for an offense that gives itself a chance to win before it needs that kind of rescue.
Derek Mason replaced offensive coordinator Bodie Reeder with Anthony Scelfo and changed the offensive line, running backs and tight ends coaches for 2026. That broad reset makes blocking and backfield production central to judging the offense's progress. The opener against Murray State produced 200 passing yards and 196 rushing yards, though weather stopped the game with 11:01 remaining. At Marshall, Middle Tennessee threw 47 times against 22 rushes; its running backs managed only 42 yards on 13 carries. Gagliano supplied 58 of the team's 109 rushing yards himself. Scelfo needs the backs to make handing off a productive option again.
Gagliano finished 25-of-47 for 243 yards and two touchdowns, but his interception was returned 54 yards, setting up Marshall's final touchdown. Earlier possessions left points unclaimed, too. Middle Tennessee converted just 3 of 12 third downs, settled for field goals after two sustained first-half drives and hit the upright on a third-quarter 50-yard attempt. Those are the places to look for improvement Saturday, keeping a possession alive and turning a long drive into seven points.
Mason pointed to execution and finishing after the loss. After consecutive 3-9 seasons in 2024 and 2025, fans need those improvements to produce wins. Kalen Woods has already scored on fumble recoveries in both games this season; the offense needs to supply more of the scoring itself.
Nevada will make that work difficult. Its defense held Montana State to 103 yards and three points after halftime last week, with EJ Smith recording two tackles for loss, including a sack. Antonio Martin Jr., DJ Taylor and Terrence Brown Jr. need to turn their carries into enough yardage to keep Scelfo calling runs and give Gagliano manageable third downs. More help from those three would give Middle Tennessee a better route to beating Nevada than asking its quarterback to carry both the passing game and the ground game into another desperate finish.