🏈 Fan Watch
Miami (OH) · 2026 · Week 3
Published September 15, 2026

Miami is a heavy underdog at Cincinnati

Miami visits Cincinnati on Saturday with a 13% win chance. A Kent State upset at Ohio State would be unwelcome.

Miami University football players enter a crowded stadium in 2003.
Miami University football in 2003.
CreditPhoto creditZvesoulisWikimedia Commons · Public domainCropped to 16:9, resized and converted to WebP by Fan Watch.

David McComb completed all 13 first-half passes against Holy Cross for 234 yards and three touchdowns as Miami (OH) won 45-7. Miami scored touchdowns on all five of its first-half offensive possessions. After rushing for just 27 yards at Pittsburgh, the RedHawks finally sustained an offense from possession to possession.

Now Miami visits Cincinnati on Saturday, September 19, at 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+. Fan Watch gives the RedHawks a 13% chance to win. The game will be TQL Stadium's first football game, with Miami one victory away from leveling the rivalry series.

McComb had help worth watching again. Lynel Billups-Williams caught four passes for 73 yards and a touchdown against Holy Cross and also contributed downfield blocking alongside Braylon Isom on Christian Ross's 34-yard score. Those receivers supplied both catches and work after someone else caught the ball. Miami needs that support when McComb has less time to deliver.

Cincinnati coach Scott Satterfield has identified moving McComb off his spot as a priority. He said McComb can punish defenses from a clean pocket and called for more pressure than Cincinnati generated against Western Carolina. Watch whether Miami protects long enough for McComb to find his receivers, and whether he can keep completing passes when Cincinnati forces him to move.

Chuck Martin anticipated the difficulty after Holy Cross. He credited Miami's talent and physical advantages and said Cincinnati would demand better footwork, greater urgency and more force. Five touchdown drives were encouraging preparation for the pursuit of a fourth straight MAC Championship Game appearance; Holy Cross supplied no direct comparison with a MAC title contender. Miami begins conference play against Bowling Green in Week 5.

Bill Brechin's units finished among the MAC's top three in each of his first four seasons as coordinator. This year's group held Holy Cross to 181 yards after allowing Pittsburgh 646 yards and seven passing touchdowns. Cincinnati just rushed for 418 yards against Western Carolina, with Gi'Bran Payne recording his second consecutive 100-yard game. Miami needs to contain that ground game well enough to give McComb chances to keep the score close.

Scoop Smith also contributed after leaving the Pittsburgh game. Against Holy Cross, he caught a 23-yard pass and blocked a punt that Leo Colombi returned for a touchdown. That restored an offensive and special-teams contributor for Week 2; his availability for Cincinnati remains unconfirmed.

Kent State at Ohio State: root for Ohio State

Saturday's noon ET game on FOX offers a straightforward preference. Ohio State has a 100% chance to win. Miami's modeled MAC title-game chance is 7.6% if the Buckeyes win, versus 3.2% if Kent State wins, a 4.3-percentage-point difference between alternative outcomes.

This is a nonconference game. A Kent State upset would signal a stronger conference competitor that Miami must visit in Week 12. An Ohio State win avoids that unwelcome signal. The sizable gap describes the cost of a very unlikely surprise; this game needs little of your afternoon. The interactive guide and methodology provide the full model context.

Miami has a much more personal reason to watch the later game. In 2023, Yahsyn McKee blocked Cincinnati's late potential winning field goal and intercepted its final overtime pass, securing a 31-24 Miami victory and the Bell for the first time since 2005. Cincinnati reclaimed it in 2024. One timely special-teams play or defensive stop can matter enormously here.

Cincinnati leads the series 61-60-7, and Saturday is the last currently scheduled meeting. Miami can leave it level, and take the Bell home with no rematch on the calendar.

How to watch Miami (OH) and the other games that affect their season

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